The influence of climate variability on flood risk in the //Khara Hais municipality (Upington area): a GIS-based approach
| dc.contributor.advisor | Barker, C. H. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Jacobs, Kirsten Jacobs | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2015-08-18T15:43:57Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2015-08-18T15:43:57Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2009-11 | |
| dc.description.abstract | English: The climate of the continents and the world is controlled by complex maritime and terrestrial interactions that produce a variety of climates across a range of regions and continents. Climate influences agriculture, environment, water and even the economy of countries all over the world. The climate of the world varies from one decade to another and a changing climate is natural and expected. However, there is a well-founded concern that the unprecedented human industrial and development activities of the past two centuries have caused changes over and above natural variation. Climate change is the natural cycle through which the earth and its atmosphere accommodate the change in the amount of energy received from the sun. A hazard is a physical situation with a potential for human injury, damage to property, damage to the environment or some combination of these. It is important to distinguish between the terms disaster and hazard. A disaster is seen as a serious disruption of the functioning of a community or society, causing widespread human, material or economic losses which exceed the ability of the affected community to cope, using its own resources. Disasters can be either natural, for instance a flood, or human induced, such as a nuclear accident. Disasters may furthermore be classified as slow-onset disasters, such as a drought, or sudden disasters, such as an earthquake . The word risk is one of the most notable examples of words with multiple and disparate meanings that may not be commonly acknowledged. Risk may have a technical meaning, referring to a chance or probability, such as risk from exposure, a consequence or impact, an example being the risk from smoking, or a perilous situation like a nuclear power plant that creates a risk. This study examines the influence of climate variability on flood risk in the //Khara Hais Municipality in the Northern Cape. The area that was investigated included the entire Orange River and Vaal River catchment areas where monthly rainfall data, as well as runoff data were used to produce a flood model for predicting a flood event within a two-month period, giving enough warning time to farmers and the inhabitants of the areas that may be influenced by this flood event. Maps were produced to show the high and low rainfall amounts in the these two catchment areas where randomly selected years and months were taken, as well as showing the one-month and two-month periods before these selected dates. Examples of the highest rainfall recorded, which was in 1988, the medium amount in 1977, and the lowest amount in 1997 were selected. Furthermore, five other such examples were taken to examine the rainfall and climate variation between the years and months ranging from 1950 to 1999. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | Afrikaans: Die klimaat van die kontinente en die wĆŖreld word beheer deur komplekse maritieme en aardse wisselwerkings wat Å verskeidenheid klimate oor Å reeks streke en kontinente veroorsaak. Klimaat beĆÆnvloed landbou, die omgewing, water en selfs die ekonomie van lande regoor die wĆŖreld. Die klimaat van die wĆŖreld wissel van een dekade tot 'n volgende en 'n veranderende klimaat is natuurlik en te wagte. Daar is gter met rede kommer dat die ongekende menslike nywerheids- en ontwikkelsaktiwiteite an die afgelope twee eeue veranderings buite die natuurlike wisseling veroorsaak het. Klimaatsverandering is die natuurlike siklus waardeur die aarde en sy atmosfeer verandering in die hoeveelheid energie wat van die son afkomstig is, akkommodeer. 'n Gevaar is 'n fisiese situasie wat 'n potensiaal vir menslike beserings, skade aan eiendom, skade aan die omgewing of 'n kombinasie hiervan inhou. Dit is belangrik om tussen die terme ramp en gevaar te onderskei. 'n Ramp word beskou as 'n ernstige onderbreking van die funksionering van 'n gemeenskap of samelewing wat wydverspreide menslike, materiĆ«le of ekonomiese verliese veroorsaak wat groter is as wat die aangetaste gemeenskap deur gebruik van hul eie hulpbronne kan hanteer. Rampe kan natuurlik wees, soos byvoorbeeld 'n vloed, of kan deur die mens veroorsaak word, soos 'n kernongeluk. Rampe kan verder geklassifiseer word as rampe wat stadig begin, soos 'n droogte, of skielike rampe, soos 'n aardbewing. Die woord risiko is een van die merkwaardigste voorbeelde van woorde met veelvuldige en uiteenlopende betekenisse wat nie altyd erken word nie. Risiko kan 'n tegniese betekenis hĆŖ wat na 'n kans of waarskynlikheid verwys, soos 'n risiko weens blootstelling; of 'n gevolg of impak, soos die risiko weens rook; of 'n doodsgevaarlike situasie wat deur 'n kernkragstasie veroorsaak kan word. Hierdie studie het die invloed van klimaatswisseling op vloedrisiko in die //Khara Hais-munisipaliteit in die Noord-Kaap ondersoek. Die gebied wat ondersoek is, sluit die hele Oranje- en Vaalrivier-opvanggebiede in waar maandelikse reĆ«nvaldata, asook afloopdata gebruik is om 'n vloedmodel te skep om 'n vloed binne 'n tydperk van twee maande te kan voorspel wat boere en die inwoners van die gebiede wat deur hierdie vloedgebeurtenis beĆÆnvloed mag word betyds te kan waarsku. Kaarte is geproduseer om die hoĆ« en lae hoeveelhede reĆ«nval in hierdie twee opvanggebiede te toon waar jare en maande ewekansig gekies is, asook om tydperke van een maand en twee maande voor hierdie gekose datums te toon. Voorbeelde is gekies van die hoogste aangetekende reĆ«nval, wat in 1988 plaasgevind het, die medium hoeveelheid in 1977, en die laagste hoeveelheid in 1997. Verder is nog vyf voorbeelde geneem om die reĆ«nval- en klimaatswisseling van die jare en maande tussen 1950 en 1999 te ondersoek. | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11660/920 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Dissertation (M.A. (Geography))--University of the Free State, 2009 | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Risk assessment -- South Africa -- Northern Cape | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Flood forecasting -- Mathematical models | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Geographic information systems | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Climatic changes -- South Africa -- Northern Cape | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | El NiƱo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Vulnerability | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Climate change | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Climate variability | en_ZA |
| dc.title | The influence of climate variability on flood risk in the //Khara Hais municipality (Upington area): a GIS-based approach | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Dissertation | en_ZA |