The crisis of the nation-state: an evaluation and reconstruction of the perspectives of Alvin Toffler

English: During the 1960's and 1970's, Toffler presented a glimpse of the future in his work which shook the world. What then seemed unimaginable is now becoming a reality. As mankind enters the new millennium, they are confronted with the realization of the nation-state's inability to forfeit durable solutions to transnational issues such as overpopulation, environmental crises, endemic diseases such as AIDS, pollution, terrorism uncontrollable crime, global mafias, transnational religious movements, the rise of multinational corporations and the use of private security organizations to protect citizens or state interests. The nation-state is not fully equipped to deal with many of these global problems. With the nation-state in crisis Toffler has provided a window on the future, especially the possible political environment, which has many global problems, in the 21st century. The shift from the Second Wave industrial civilization to the Third Wave post-industrial civilization is not destined to evolve peacefully. The reactionaries of the Second Wave (hedgehogs) wish to maintain the existing political order within an industrial society, while the revolutionaries (foxes) choose the radical option of the Third Wave wish to render the Second Wave obsolete. Mankind is now entering this phase of the master conflict between the two civilizations. Toffler's contributions are aimed at providing a vision of the future so as to facilitate the shift to the next civilization in a peaceful and rational way. The following factors have served as motivation for this study: - The relevance of Toffler's contributions as mankind enters the 21•1 century. - Toffler is an internationally recognized scenario thinker and offers a heretical perspective regarding the future of the nation-state. - A gap that exists within the contemporary literature regarding the reconstruction and evaluation of Toffler's contributions with specific reference to the crisis of the nation-state. - To address the problem of state power in a knowledge-based, computer-driven society. - To explore the extent and parameters of the struggle between the industrial Second Wave elite and the post-industrial Third Wave elite for control of power in the Third Wave civilization. The study attempts to make a contribution towards the following: - The development of a meta-theoretical framework according to which Toffler's contributions may be reconstructed and evaluated. - To determine Toffler's status and position within the identified field of study. - To reconstruct and evaluate Toffler's contributions, regarding the future of the nation-state, by applying the meta-theoretical framework as designed for the purpose of this study. - The role and influence of knowledge as a variable affecting the power of the nation-state needs to be explored seeing that the result thereof will affect humanity in a holistic manner. - An assessment of Toffler's contributions regarding fundamental political development and political change with regard to the evolutionary development of the nation-state. - Emphasis will be placed on Toffler's contributions regarding the continuum of the nation-state, namely the formation, current status, crises and future of the nation-state. An evaluation and interpretation of Toffler's work have yielded in the following findings: - Toffler has developed a wave model which divides the evolutionary socialization process of mankind into three universal civilizational waves, i.e. the First Wave agrarian civilization, the Second Wave industrial civilization and the Third Wave post-industrial civilization. - Toffler has also developed, adjacent to the wave model, a power theory which suggests that as one universal civilizational wave is replaced by another one a power shift occurs, transforming its underlying code or paradigm. - As mankind enters the Third Wave civilization a new blueprint or code has to been designed which is unique to the Third Wave. - The revolutionary change to a new world order will result in a master conflict between the reactionaries of the Second Wave (hedgehogs) and the revolutionaries of the Third Wave (foxes). - Toffler has chosen the Third Wave as a scenario logic and has sketched a profile of the Third Wave political dispensation. - Toffler's work offers a heretical view of the future which the architects of the Third Wave can utilize so as to design a new world order. - Toffler has not only revolutionized the way mankind views the world but also his own academic growth. When choosing an alternative future world he also underwent a transformation away from his Marxist background to the phenomenological thoughts deeply rooted in the German tradition. In the wake of the master conflict in which the Second and Third Wave Civilizations battle for control of the future, Toffler recognizes a confused mankind. Instead of supporting the scenario which forwards a world spiraling into destruction, he offers a blueprint in which the radical changes affecting mankind can be understood. The focal point of this dissertation is his view of the crises of the nation-state, with man experiencing a confused transitional frame of mind. From this foundation Toffler’s contributions serve as a tool which will enable mankind to understand the transitional period into the Third Wave. According to Toffler the current transitional period of conflict experienced by mankind will be followed by a period of equilibrium in which a new political dispensation will offer, a new world which is radically different. His contributions will enable mankind, to conquer the crises-ridden stormy transitional period and make the correct decisions which will culminate in creating the new Third Wave Civilization.