Research Articles (Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa (DiMTEC))
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Item Open Access Analysis of the perceptions of flood and effect of adoption of adaptation strategies on income of informal settlements of Mamelodi in South Africa(Elsevier, 2024) Nyam, Y.S.; Modiba, N.T.S.; Ojo, T.O.; Ogundeji, A.A.; Okolie, C.C.; Selelo, O.T.Extreme weather events are being experienced all over the world because of climate change, posing challenges for individuals and households who rely on agricultural operations as their major source of livelihood. Household-level adaptation is an efficient way of dealing with global climate change. As such, this study aims to examine the perception of informal settlers to flood risk and their adoption of adaptation strategies to flood. This study applied the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to identify factors influencing the perception of flooding on community members and probit regression to identify the factors influencing the adoption of adaptation strategies to floods and examined the impact of the adoption of adaptation strategies on income in Eerste Fabriek informal settlement in Mamelodi using two-step quasi-maximum likelihood estimates of fractional response model. Our results show that community members are perceptive of floods and their impact on the environment and their livelihoods, and on average, they believe flood impact is significant. Age, marital status, education, employment status, income, and household size are demographic factors that tend to influence their perception of the impact of flood events. Access to institutional facilities such as health and recreational facilities was also a significant factor in how community members adapt to the impact of floods. Timely healthcare access services are a significant precursor for people to form their perception, which is intended to help them adapt appropriately to situations as health is wealth. Community members' perceptions and adaptive capacity can be improved through policies that foster the adoption of effective adaptation strategies. Community-based adaptation strategies are necessary for involving all stakeholders and necessary for mitigating the effects of flooding.Item Open Access Livelihood vulnerability to the changing climate: the experiences of smallholder farming households in the Free State Province, South Africa(Elsevier, 2023) Okolie, Collins C.; Danso-Abbeam, Gideon; Ogundeji, Abiodun A.As a result of climatically regulated water sources, smallholder farming households in South Africa are severely impacted by climate change. Using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index, we assessed the vulnerability of smallholder farming households to climate change in Thaba Nchu, Mangaung District of the Free State Province of South Africa. Primary data from 301 smallholder farming households were collected and augmented with secondary data on temperature and rainfall from 2010 to 2020. The study found that farming households in Central Thaba Nchu are more vulnerable than those in North and South Thaba Nchu in terms of adaptive capacity: social network, livelihoods strategies, and socio-demographic structure. The Central Thaba Nchu were likewise more vulnerable to water resources than the Northern and Southern Thaba Nchu. However, Northern Thaba Nchu is more exposed and sensitive to health-related difficulties than Central and Southern Thaba Nchu. The study recommends that non-government and government institutions in the province should employ a pragmatic method to evaluate vulnerability using climate service information while prioritizing vulnerable households for adaptation support to improve adaptive capacity and resilience. The findings also imply that weather forecasters, in partnership with agricultural extension agents, must provide farmers with timely and adequate climate information reports to prepare them for climatic shocks. Moreover, it is important to deliver climate service information that is genuine, significant, and reliable.Item Open Access Enhancing household welfare through perennial crop production in Northern Ghana(MDPI, 2023) Danso-Abbeam, Gideon; Amin, Khama Mohammed; Ogundeji, Abiodun A.As Ghana seeks to diversify its agricultural export commodity trade away from its over-reliance on cocoa, empirical evidence is critical to inform policy direction on the implementation of programs to promote such an agenda. The objective of the study was to determine whether farmers who cultivate perennial crops as their primary source of livelihood have better welfare gains than farmers who cultivate perennial crops. The study used cross-sectional data collected from 386 farming households in the northern region of Ghana. The propensity score-matching technique augmented with a control function estimator was employed in order to account for self-selection biases in household characteristics that could invalidate the quality and magnitude of the estimates. Factors identified to positively and significantly influence households’ decision to cultivate perennial crops include number of male adults in a household, farm size, membership of farmer groups, value of agricultural credit, and distance from homestead to the farm. The empirical evidence further indicated that farmers who grow perennial crops have higher welfare gains in terms of consumption expenditure per capita, household income per capita, and farm income per hectare than farmers who grow annual crops as their primary source of income. On the other hand, annual crop farmers have a wider spread of income (income diversification) than perennial crop farmers. Sensitizing farming households to engage in perennial crop production, at the very least, as an alternative source of livelihood, will aid in the fight against poverty and food insecurity, as well as improve Ghana’s macroeconomic balances through agricultural export revenue.Item Open Access Strengthening Namibia's flood early warning system through a critical gap analysis(MDPI, 2023) Moises, Deolfa Jose; Kunguma, OliviaFloods are considered leading hydrometeorological disasters, which are increasing in frequency, intensity and complexity with the evolution of climate change. Their associated impacts have detrimental and often prolonged implications for humankind, especially communities heavily reliant on the natural environment. The development and implementation of effective flood early warning systems (FEWSs) can serve to enhance coping strategies and strengthen the adaptive capacities of target communities while simultaneously minimising flood risks. However, shortcomings related to the lack of information on the operationalisation of these systems, the technical and financial requirements, the challenges faced and the directives related to their implementation have persisted, subverting risk reduction efforts at the grassroots level. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions, this study employed a systematic analysis of the official Namibian flood early warning system based on the system’s implementation in Kabbe, Namibia. The study results revealed a need for significant changes across all system components as the FEWS follows a top-down, disintegrated and response-driven approach. Roles are undefined among institutions; funding is inadequate; and community risk perceptions, coping capacities and participation are disregarded. Based on the study findings, the researchers recommend significant changes in the design and application of the system, urging practitioners to recognise FEWSs as the continuous and integrated tools that they are.Item Open Access Effects of the density of invasive Lantana camera plants on the biodiversity of large and small mammals in the Groenkloof Nature Reserve (GNR) in South Africa(MDPI, 2023) Raphela, Tlou D.; Duffy, Kevin J.Multi-scale approaches have been used to determine scales at which mammal species are responding to habitat destruction due to invasion, but the impacts of weeds on mammals have not been extensively studied, especially in Africa. Inside the Groenkloof Nature Reserve (GNR), we assessed how mammals are affected by an invasive weed Lantana camara. A series of models were applied to determine the differences in species abundance as well as richness, separated for large and small mammals. When diversity indices were used, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) revealed no statistically significant difference between treatments (F5 = 0.233, p = 0.945) for large mammals. The results of a Generalised Linear Mixed Model (GLMM) showed that vegetation type (Wald χ22 = 120.156; p < 0.01) and foraging guilds (Wald χ23 = 76.771; p < 0.01) were significant predictors of large mammal species richness. However, for small mammals, the results of a GLMM showed that only treatment type (Wald χ25 = 10.62; p = 0.050) was a significant predictor of the number of small mammals trapped. In addition, the ANOVA revealed statistically significant differences in species diversity between treatments (F5 = 0.934; p < 0.001) and by season (F1 = 9.122 p = 0.003) for small mammals. The presence of L. camara coupled with other predictors was associated with differences in large mammal abundances and diversity, and differences in how these large mammals were distributed across the landscape. Furthermore, the highest species diversity was found in the spring for small mammals. Therefore, for all the mammals studied, the presence of L. camara negatively affected species abundance, richness, and diversity, as well as how these species were distributed across the invaded and cleared areas.Item Open Access Perception and adaptation strategies of smallholder farmers to drought risk: a scientometric analysis(MDPI, 2022) Ogundeji, Abiodun A.; Okolie, Collins C.Droughts are a worldwide issue that affects ecosystems’ economies and cultures; therefore, its perception and adaptation strategies among smallholder farmers are crucial for the mitigation of drought risk, and for sustainable food production. We used the bibliometric method to analyze 121 publications from the Scopus database to better understand the existing situation and trends in the field of drought risk. During the years under consideration, the field saw a significant increase in publication output, with an annual growth rate of roughly 68.14 percent. On a national level, the United States scored first with the most publications and the most academic influence, with the majority of top papers citations coming from USA-connected universities and research centers. The top five most frequently used keywords and keyword-plus were, drought, adaptation, agriculture, smallholder farmers, and climate change. Some of the adaptation strategies adopted by smallholder farmers, which could be used by many nations to deal with drought events, include: rainwater harvesting, diversification of income sources, planting of short-season cash crops to enhance cash flow, use of drought-tolerance herds, etc. This research offers a plan to navigate the intellectual dilemma in drought risk research and offers guidance for researchers in all continents, particularly the Africans and the Europeans, in further studies in this area, as the agricultural sector contributes significantly to the economy of many nations.Item Open Access Adaptation to climate change and impact on smallholder farmers' food security in South Africa(MDPI, 2022) Ogundeji, Abiodun A.If not adequately managed, climate change is predicted to have a large negative impact on smallholder subsistence farmers, posing a significant danger to household food security. However, the role of adaptive techniques used by farming households to reduce these negative effects and, as a result, their food insecurity status has not been sufficiently evaluated. This study explores the factors that influence smallholder farmers’ adoption of climate change adaptation measures, as well as their impact on household food security. Using an endogenous treatment-effect ordered probit model, agricultural households’ food security status is likely to significantly improve when they employ measures to adapt to adverse climatic conditions. The empirical findings also show that the gender makeup of the household, age, tropical livestock unit, and access to climatic information improve the likelihood of smallholder farmers adopting climate change adaptation measures. Based on the findings, this study advocates that governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) support smallholder farmers’ Indigenous adaptation options with various institutional, regulatory, and technological assistance, with a particular emphasis on female-headed households.Item Open Access COVID-19 home remedies and myths becoming a hazardous health infodemic?(AOSIS, 2021) Kunguma, OliviaCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) brought on several social, economic, political, and environmental challenges. What was mostly questioned was the efficacy of the Disaster Management Act 57 of 2002 (As Amended 16 of 2015) (DMA), which was used to declare COVID-19 a disaster. The concern was whether the DMA is able to deal with pandemics when its focus is mostly on climate-related disasters. Most public health emergencies experience the spread of overwhelming information, some of which may be true and others may be false information. This article discusses the home remedies and myths related to COVID-19, that could impede pandemic response efforts. Subsequently, this study raises a question regarding the effectiveness of DMA to deal with such types of compounding risks. In doing so, this research is exploratory where the DMA and the media articles on COVID-19 home remedies and myths are systematically reviewed. Coronavirus disease 2019 home remedies and myths were found to be hazardous and the DMA was found unprepared to deal with such types of compounding risks. ‘Infodemic management’ needs to be considered in the DMA in order to prepare for effective disaster response.Item Open Access Quantifying the nutritional and income loss caused by crop raiding in a rural African subsistence farming community in South Africa(AOSIS, 2021) Raphela, Tlou D.; Pillay, NevilleGlobally, crop damage by wildlife contributes to food insecurity through the direct loss of food and income. We investigated the calories lost and the potential economic impact of crop raiding at subsistence homesteads abutting the Hluhluwe Game Reserve, and assessed mitigation measures to combat crop raiding. We quantified the seasonal loss of calories (kJ/g) of four common crops, namely, beetroot, common bean, maize, and spinach, and determined the seasonal potential income loss. We used a stratified sampling approach to sample the homesteads. We found that season, crop type and the interaction between season and crop type predicted relative calorie loss and potential income loss, with the highest income loss recorded for spinach in the dry season. Significant differences were found for the potential income loss for all crop types in the wet season, and for the interaction between the crop types (maize, spinach) and the wet season. Farm slope was also a significant predictor of the relative calorie loss. Crop raiding animals, crops raided and distance of farms from the reserve all had a significant effect on the choice of mitigation measures of farmers. The highest relative calorie loss was for maize during the dry season, which could affect the subsistence farmers by reducing their daily calorie intake. This has an impact on their food security, especially during the dry season. Moreover, the most preferred mitigation measure used by farmers can have opportunity costs. These results have important implications for food security policies and practices.Item Open Access COVID-19 disaster response: South African disaster managers’ faith in mandating legislation tested?(AOSIS, 2021) Kunguma, Olivia; Ncube, Alice; Mokhele, Mosekama O.For the first time in the history of the Disaster Management Act, 57 of 2002, South Africa declared COVID-19 an epidemiological disaster. Section 3 and 27(1) of this Act activated the responsible Minister in consultation with other Ministers to issue regulations in response to the disaster. The declaration exposed the already criticised Act to scrutiny by the public. Therefore, this study investigated the Metropolitan Disaster Management Centres that coordinate local events and support the provincial and national disaster management centres, their perceptions concerning the disaster management legislation that mandates them. The study recognised a gap in this regard and saw it imperative to give the disaster managers a voice and a platform to express their opinion concerning the heavily criticised legislation. A model of the policy implementation process guided the study investigation. This model argues that implementation of policies tends to generate tensions, which result in a disruption of the policy formulators’ expectations. The research uses some of the model’s variables to measure the perceptions of disaster managers. Using an interview guide, the researchers conducted virtual interviews with the disaster managers. Scholarly and media articles review concerning the Act formed part of the data collection. The study finds that the disaster managers perceive the disaster management legislation as a very useful guide, an excellent piece of legislation and trust it regardless of the criticism it received. The gaps the critics identified in the legislation became evident and had negative effects on the COVID-19 disaster response.Item Open Access Investigating the prevention and mitigatory role of risk communication in the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study of Bloemfontein, South Africa(AOSIS, 2021) Kunguma, Olivia; Mokhele, Mosekama O.; Coetzee, MerciaThe South African disaster response activities surpass risk reduction since the implementation of the Disaster Management Act 57 of 2002 (DMA) and the National Disaster Management Framework of 2005 (NDMF). Risk reduction, in particular risk communication, remained unexploited until the occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. The legislation and policy mandate a proactive approach for disaster management, requiring a focus on disaster risk reduction. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the significance of risk communication as a critical prevention and mitigatory strategy in disaster risk management, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic. Key to risk communication success is ensuring adequate comprehension, accurate perception of the disseminated information, and compliance with regulations. Questions of trustworthiness, acceptability, effectiveness, and usefulness of messages and strategies communicated sought answers from the Bloemfontein population. Furthermore, the Agenda-setting Theory provided the grounding for the study. The study sample was picked in a stratified random sampling manner, using the confidence level and margin of error equation. A questionnaire survey was used to collect the data required to achieve the research objectives. Risk communication as a disaster risk reduction strategy implemented concurrently with imposed regulations was found to have played a vital role in mitigating the virus spread. However, the respondents were not aware of the local disaster management centre, which is supposed to be engaged in COVID-19 disaster management activities.Item Open Access A crisis communication plan for municipalities: the case of the Frances Baard district municipality(Department of Communication Science, University of the Free State, 2013) Kunguma, Olivia; Terblanche, LydieA crisis communication plan facilitates the effective flow of information between relevant organisation(s) and a community affected by a crisis. In 2010 the Frances Baard District Municipality, situated in the Northern Cape, commissioned the development of a crisis communication plan for the municipality. It was to be developed in consultation with various stakeholders. Once developed, the plan had to be reviewed and serve as an educational document that could be used by other municipalities. The study found that drafting a crisis communication plan has to include best communication practices for each anticipated problem and effective implementation. Continuous evaluation and updating of the plan are necessary to ensure that critical business functions are not jeopardised in the event of a crisis.