The economic impact of maize-based ethanol production on the South African animal feed industry
| dc.contributor.advisor | Taljaard, P. R. | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Meyer, F. | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Willemse, B. J. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Strydom, Dirk B | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2015-11-20T12:46:06Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2015-11-20T12:46:06Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2009-05 | |
| dc.description.abstract | English: This study focuses mainly on the economic impact of maize-based ethanol production on the South African animal feed industry. Over the past few years the world has witnessed substantial developments in the global production and the production capacity of ethanol. Bio-fuels are becoming an increasingly important source of energy globally. This tremendous industry growth is mainly driven by: increased energy and more specifically petroleum prices, the reliability of traditional crude oil exporters along with political motives, adverse pollution effects (methyl tertiary butyl ether – MTBE) and more specifically emission gases from fossil fuels leading to environmental pressure for the use of cleaner burning fuels. Together with this growth, various researchers locally and globally have focused on ethanol production, but little work has been done on the economic impact that ethanol production will have on the animal feed industry. These impacts include substitution of the raw materials of animal feed, the price sensitivity of raw material prices (equilibrium prices), changes in feed costs and the consumption of distiller’s dried grains with solubles (DDGS) by different animal species. In order to simulate the results, the two main scenarios were analysed using three different models, namely the BFAP model, the APR model and the Nieuwoudt/McGuigan model. By applying the BFAP model to these scenarios, the equilibrium prices of animal-feed raw materials were simulated for the year 2015. The other two models were then applied to these prices in order to evaluate the impact of ethanol production on the animal feed industry. Two main scenarios is constructed with 8 combinations, the main variables in the scenarios is the oil price and the blending ratios. The results revealed that there is no significant effect on the animal feed industry. Various raw materials are affected, but only by small percentages. The only raw material that shows any significant change is lucerne with a 20% decrease in consumption. A few species were dominant consumers of DDGS, namely broilers, pigs and dairy cattle. In terms of the animal feed costs, there was only a 2% decrease with the introduction of ethanol production. The introduction of ethanol production resulted in various price reactions, including an increase in the price of yellow maize and a decrease in the prices of various oilcake raw materials. Under a scenario of high blending ratios and oil prices the yellow maize price increases with R169/ton and the soya oilcake price decreases with R347/ton. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | Afrikaans: Hierdie studie se hooffokus is op die ekonomiese impak van mielie-gebaseerde etanol- produksie op die Suid-Afrikaanse voerindustrie. In die afgelope paar jaar was daar substansiële ontwikkelings in die globale produksie en produksiekapasiteit van etanol. Bio-brandstof is tans besig om een van die belangrikste bronne van globale energie te word. Die internasionale biobrandstof industriegroei word hoofsaaklik gedryf deur: verhoogde energie en meer spesifiek in petroleum pryse, betroubaarheid van die tradisionele ru-olie uitvoerders saam met politieke motiewe, ongunstige besoedelingseffekte (Methyl tertiary butyl- MTBE) en meer spesifiek, uitlaatgasse van fossielbrandstowwe, wat dan om die beurt lei tot omgewings- druk om skoner brandstof te gebruik. Saam met hierdie groei is daar navorsing gedoen op etanolproduksie, maar min inligting is ingewin oor die ekonomiese impak wat etanolproduksie op die voerindustrie gaan hê. Hierdie impakte, soos die vervanging van dierevoer rou materiaal en die pryssensitiwiteit van rou materiaale lei tot veranderinge in voerkoste verskillende dierspesie verbruik van DDGS word ook in ag geneem. Om hierdie resultate te verkry, word drie verskillende modelle saam met twee scenario’s gebruik. Die scenario’s bestaan uit twee hoof scenario’s en agt byvoegende kombinasies waarvan die variasie groot en deels uit olie pryse en inmengings vlakke bestaan. Hierdie modelle is die BFAPmodel, APR-model en die Niewoudt/McGuigan-model. Met hierdie scenario’s, saam met die BFAP-model, is ekwilibriumpryse van dierevoer rou materiaal, vir die jaar 2015 gesimuleer. Hierdie pryse saam met die twee ander modelle, word gebruik om die impak van etanolproduksie op die dierevoerindustrie te bepaal. In die resultate is daar gevind dat daar geen merkwaardige effek op die dierevoerindustrie is nie. Verskeie rou materiale is geaffekteer, alhoewel slegs in klein persentasies. Die enigste rou materiaal wat beduidende verandering toon, is lusern met ʼn 20% afname in verbruik. ʼn Klein hoeveelheid spesies is dominante verbruikers van DDGS. Die spesies is soos volg: hoenders, varke en melkbeeste. In terme van die voerindustrie is daar net 2% afname in die voerkoste met die bekendstelling van etanolproduksie. Met die bekendstelling van etanolproduksie, is daar verskeie prysreaksies, soos die geelmielieprys wat toeneem en verskeie oliekoek- rou materiaalpryse wat afneem. Met 'n scenario van hoë etanol inmeng vlakke en olie pryse gaan die geel mielie prys met R169/ton styg en die soja oliekoek prys met R347/ton daal. | af |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Protein Research Foundation (PRF) | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11660/1710 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Animal feeding -- Economic aspects -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Agricultural wastes as feed -- Economic aspects -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Biomass energy | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Corn products industry | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Dissertation (M.Com. (Agricultural Economic))--University of the Free State, 2009 | en_ZA |
| dc.title | The economic impact of maize-based ethanol production on the South African animal feed industry | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Dissertation | en_ZA |