Electronic hacking and subversion as tools of foreign policy: a neoclassical realist analysis of cyber power

Abstract

Hierdie studie ontwikkel ’n nuwe teorie van kubermag as ’n instrument van buitelandse beleid, deur te fokus op soewereine state as die eenheid van ontleding en die teoretiese aannames te benut wat inherent is aan die realistiese paradigma van Internasionale Betrekkinge. Hierdie teorie beskryf en klassifiseer die aard van kubermag in internasionale politiek en poog om te verduidelik waarom verskillende state verskillende keuses maak oor watter kuberstrategie om te aanvaar. Die studie stel ’n konseptualisering van kubermag bekend wat beide rekenaarkrakery en sosiale media-disinformasieveldtogte binne ’n enkele raamwerk insluit, waarin beide tipes kuberbedrywighede verstaan ​​word as metodes om vertroue te verminder en te vernietig. Dit ontleed dan die nut, beperkings en koste van tegnologie en oortuiging van kubermag, en voer aan dat beide vorme vereis dat die aanvallende staat beduidende afwykings aanvaar. Dit dui daarop dat dit onwaarskynlik is dat state hierdie instrumente sal gebruik, tensy hulle dwingende redes het om dit te doen. Voortbouend op hierdie insig, ontwikkel die studie dan ’n nuwe tipologie van vier kuberstrategieë: “beperk”, “tegnies-aggressief”, “oorredend-aggressief” en “gekombineerd-aggressief”. Dit veronderstel dat state se keuse van ’n kuberstrategie hoofsaaklik deur twee onafhanklike veranderlikes bepaal word: hul eksterne sekuriteitsvereistes en hul institusionele voorkeure. State met hoë eksterne veiligheidsvereistes is meer geneig om van tegnies-aggressiewe kubermag gebruik te maak, terwyl state met negatiewe institusionele voorkeure meer geneig is om van oorredend-aggressiewe kubermag gebruik te maak. Hierdie teorie verskaf ’n skraapsugtige en oortuigende verduideliking vir kuberstrategie-keuses. Om die teorie te toets en toe te pas, word drie empiriese gevallestudies oor Brasilië, die Verenigde State van Amerika en die Russiese Federasie gebruik. Die bevindinge toon dat Brasilië ’n beperkte strategie aangeneem het, terwyl die VSA ’n tegnies-aggressiewe strategie gekies het, en Rusland ’n gekombineerde-aggressiewe strategie gekies het. Hierdie empiriese bevindinge stem ooreen met die verwagtinge van die teorie. Laastens word die teorie toegepas om te voorspel hoe die kuberstrategieë van hierdie state kan ontwikkel indien hul geassosieerde onafhanklike veranderlikes sou verander. Die gevolglike ontleding dui daarop dat die ontstaan ​​van veelvuldige-polariteit in die internasionale stelsel waarskynlik geassosieer sal word met die verhoogde gebruik van beide tegniese en oorredende kubermag deur regeringsmagrolspelers.

This study develops a new theory of cyber power as a tool of foreign policy, focusing on sovereign states as the unit of analysis and drawing from the theoretical assumptions that are inherent in the realist paradigm of International Relations. This theory describes and classifies the nature of cyber power in international politics, and seeks to explain why different states make differing choices about which cyber strategy to adopt. The study introduces a conceptualisation of cyber power that incorporates both computer hacking and social media disinformation campaigns within a single framework, in which both types of cyber operations are understood as methods for degrading and destroying trust. It then analyses the utility, limitations, and costs associated with technical and persuasive of cyber power, and argues that both forms require the attacking state to accept significant trade-offs. This suggests that states are unlikely to use these tools unless they have pressing reasons to do so. Building upon on this insight, the study then develops a new typology of four cyber strategies: “restrained”, “technical-aggressive”, “persuasive-aggressive”, and “combined-aggressive”.

It hypothesises that cyber strategy selection by states is primarily determined by two independent variables: their external security requirements and their institutional preferences. States with high external security requirements are more likely to make aggressive use of technical cyber power, while states with negative institutional preferences are more likely to make aggressive use of persuasive cyber power. This theory provides a parsimonious and compelling explanation for cyber strategy selection. To test and apply the theory, three empirical case studies are conducted on Brazil, the United States of America, and the Russian Federation. The findings reveal that Brazil has adopted a restrained strategy, while the United States has chosen a technical-aggressive strategy, and Russia has selected a combined-aggressive strategy. These empirical findings are congruent with the expectations of the theory. Lastly, the theory is applied to predict how the cyber strategies of these states might evolve if their associated independent variables were to change. The resulting analysis suggests that the emergence of multipolarity in the international system is likely to be associated with the increased use of both technical and persuasive cyber power by state actors. ___________________________________________________________________

Lolu cwaningo lwakha injulalwazi entsha yamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi njengethuluzi lenqubomgomo yangaphandle, egxile emazweni azimele njengeyunithi yokuhlaziya kanye nokuthathela emicabangweni yenjulalwazi etholakala kwipharadayimu irealist Yobudlelwano Bamazwe ngamazwe. Le njulalwazi ichaza futhi ihlukanise uhlobo lwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi kwezombusazwe zamazwe ngamazwe, futhi ihlose ukuchaza ukuthi kungani amazwe ahlukene enza izinqumo ezihlukene mayelana nokuthi yiliphi isu lohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi azolisebenzisa. Ucwaningo lwethula ukucatshangwa kwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi okufaka kokubili ukugebenga kwesiqoqelalwazi kanye nemikhankaso yokusabalalisa ulwazi lwenkundla yezokuxhumana ngaphakathi kohlaka olulodwa, lapho zombili izinhlobo zokusebenza kohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi ziqondwa njengezindlela zokwehlisa isithunzi nokucekela phansi ukwethembana. Lube-ke seluhlaziya ukusetshenziswa, imikhawulo, kanye nezindleko ezihambisana nobuchwepheshe kanye nokukholisayo kwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi, bese kuthi zombili lezi zinhlobo zidinga izwe elihlaselayo lamukele ukuhwebelana okubalulekile. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi mancane amathuba okuthi amazwe asebenzise lawa mathuluzi ngaphandle uma enezizathu ezicindezelayo zokwenza kanjalo. Ukwakhela phezu kwalokhu kuqonda, ucwaningo lube selusungula uhlobo olusha lwamasu amane ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi : “ukuvinjelwa”, “okobuchwepheshe-okuhlaselayo”, “okukholisayo-okuhlaselayo”, kanye “okuhlangene-okuhlaselayo”. Luhlawumbisela ukuthi ukukhethwa kwamasu ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi kwamazwe, ngokuyinhloko kunqunywa amavariyebuli azimele: izidingo zazo zokuphepha zangaphandle kanye nezinketho zazo zesikhungo. Amazwe anezidingo eziphakeme zokuphepha zangaphandle maningi amathuba okuthi asebenzise ngokuhlaselayo okobuchwepheshe kwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi, kuyilapho amazwe anezinketho ezingezinhle zesikhungo kungenzeka asebenzise ngokuhlaselayo okukholisayo kwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi. Le njululwazi ihlinzeka ngencazelo engenazindleko futhi ephoqelelayo yokukhetha isu lohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi. Ukuze kuhlolwe futhi kusetshenziswe injulalwazi, kuqhutshwa ucwaningo lwezimo ezintathu eBrazil, e-United States of America, naseRussian Federation. Okutholakele kuveza ukuthi iBrazil yamukele isu elivinjiwe, kuyilapho i-United States ikhethe isu elihlaselayo lobuchwepheshe, futhi iRussia ikhethe isu elihlaselayo elihlangene. Lokhu okutholakele okuyiqiniso kuhambisana nokulindelwe yinjulalwazi. Okokugcina, injulalwazi isetshenziselwa ukubikezela ukuthi amasu ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi ala mazwe angase aguquke kanjani uma amavariyebuli azimele engashintsha. Ukuhlaziywa okuwumphumela kuphakamisa ukuthi ukuvela kokuhlukahluka ohlelweni lwamazwe ngamazwe kungenzeka kuhlotshaniswe nokwanda kokusetshenziswa kobuchwepheshe nokukholisayo kwamandla ohleloxhumano ngesiqoqelalwazi ngabasebenzela amazwe.

Diphuputso tsena di hlahisa lewa le letjha la matla a marangrang e le sesebediswa sa leano la ka ntle ho naha, di sebedisa dinaha tse ikemetseng e le ntlha ya tlhahlobo mme di ipapisitse le mehopolo ya thuto e leng karolo ya kutlwisiso ya sebele ya Dikamano tsa Matjhaba. Lewa lena le hlalosa le ho qolla mofuta wa matla a marangrang dipolotiking tsa matjhaba, mme le batla ho hlalosa hore na ke hobaneng ha dinaha tse fapaneng di etsa dikgetho tse fapaneng mabapi le mawala a marangrang a lokelang ho amohelwa. Diphuputso tsena di hlahisa mohopolo wa matla a marangrang tse kenyelletsang ho qhekella ha dikhomphutha le matsholo a tshebediso ya marangrang a dipuisano a ho thibela lesedi le fosahetseng ka hara moralo o le mong, moo mefuta ka bobedi ya tshebetso ya marangrang e utlwisiswang e le mekgwa ya ho nyenyefatsa le ho senya tshepo. Di tswela pele ho hlahloba molemo, mefokolo, le ditshenyehelo tse amanang le theknoloji le ho susumetsa matla a marangrang, mme di pheha kgang ya hore mefuta eo ka bobedi e hloka hore naha e hlaselang, e amohele ditheolelo tse kgolo. Sena se fana ka maikutlo a hore ho ke ke ha etsahala hore dinaha di sebedise disebediswa tsena, ntle le haeba di na le mabaka a utlwahalang a ho etsa jwalo. Ho itshetlehile ka temohiso ena, diphuputso tsena di hlahisa mofuta o motjha wa mawala a mane a marangrang: “a thibetsweng”, “a mabifi a tekheniki”, “a kgodisang a mabifi”, le “a kopaneng a mabifi”. Di fana ka kgopolo ya hore ho kgethwa ha maano a marangrang ke dinaha ho kgethwa haholoholo ke dintho tse pedi tse ikemetseng: ditlhoko tsa bona tsa tshireletso ya ka ntle le dikgetho tsa bona tsa setheo. Dinaha tse nang le ditlhoko tse hodimo tsa tshireletso ya ka ntle ho naha, di na le monyetla wa ho sebedisa matla a tekheniki a marangrang ka mokgwa o mabifi, ha dinaha tse nang le dikgetho tse mpe tsa setheo di na le monyetla wa ho sebedisa matla a kgodisang a marangrang ka mokgwa o mabifi. Lewa lena le fana ka tlhaloso e utlwahalang ya hore na ke hobaneng ha ho kgethwa mawala a ho sebedisa inthanete. Ho hlahloba le ho sebedisa lewa lena, ho entswe dithuto tse tharo tsa diketsahalo tsa Brazil, United States of America le Russia Federation. Diphuputso di bontsha hore Brazil e sebedisitse mawala a thibetsweng, ha United States e sebedisitse mawala a thekeniki e mabifi, mme Russia e sebedisitse mawala a mabifi a kopaneng. Diphihlelo tsena tsa diphuputso di dumellana le ditebello tsa lewa. Qetellong, lewa lena le sebediswa ho bolela esale pele hore na maano a marangrang a dinaha tsena a ka fetoha jwang haeba ho ka lepa mefuta e ikemetseng e amanang le yona. Tlhahlobo e hlahisitsweng e fana ka maikutlo a hore ho hlaha ha kabo ya matla pakeng tsa dinaha, tsamaisong ya tsa matjhaba, ho ka nna ha amanywa le ho eketseha ha tshebediso ya matla a sethekeniki le a kgodisang a matla a marangrang ke basebetsi ba mmuso.