Die voorspelling van gevaarlikheid: 'n psigoforensiese studie

The prediction of dangerousness, more recently known as risk management, has become an integral part of the criminal justice system. The purpose of these predictions is to make an significant contribution in the prevention of violent crime. Although predictions of this nature as well as research on this fenomenon have been around on the international scene for more than two decades, almost nothing has been done in this regard in South Africa. This is especially distressing because of the current violent crime rate in this country and specifically because of the detrimental effect it has on the victims and their families, the community at large and the country as a whole politically, financially and mental healthwise. Significant reduction of violent crime, also through effective predictions, should be seen as a national priority The main purpose of this study was to alleviate the apparent lack of research in South- Africa on the prediction of dangerousness; more specifically, to identify the criteria which the involved professionals (i.e. magistrates and psychologists), use when determining dangerousness. A secondary purpose was to test the respondents on several related matters (eg. prejudice, training and the most effective sentencing) when sentencing of violent crime is considered. The perceptions of the involved role players were obtained through a self compiled questionnaire. Answers to specific questions concerning dangerousness and related forensic aspects, and evaluating of fictional case studies, were where applicable, amplified by qualitative comment. The core findings were the following: - the most important violence predicting criteria identified by both respondent-groups, were: repeated exposure to violence, a history of violent conduct, threats to commit violence and (to a limited extent), a history of treatment of certain psychiatric disorders; - the occupational groups differed in the emphasis that was placed on certain risk factors (eg. psychologists accentuated factors like age, sex, absence of violent history and remorse, more than the lawyer-group did); and - the views of the psychologists on psycho-forensic aspects relating to sentencing of violent offenders, were more supported by empirical research, than the opinions of the magistrates. It is specifically recommended that research on the effective prediction of violent behaviour be done on an ongoing basis and that it should receive national priority and funding.