The macro economy and irrigation agriculture in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa
| dc.contributor.advisor | Van Schalkwyk, H. D. | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Louw, D. B. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Taljaard, Pieter R. | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2016-11-18T07:25:45Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2016-11-18T07:25:45Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2007-12 | |
| dc.description.abstract | English: The overall objective of this study was to develop a model capable of quantifying the economywide impacts of market risk and other exogenous factors, with specific reference to efficient irrigation water use along the banks of the middle and lower Orange River in the Northern Cape Province (NCP). The study is based on the second of two parts of a larger Water Research Commission (WRC) funded project, titled: “Market risk, water management and the multiplier effects of irrigation agriculture with reference to the NCP”. One of the sub-objectives was to simulate the effects of selected market change(s), i.e. a change in the world price of fruit, on the provincial economy as well as to quantify the economy-wide impact of selected regional shocks and structural changes. A second sub-objective includes recommendations on institutional responses that will increase effective water management for regions where irrigation agriculture makes a major contribution to the economy such as the NCP. The ability to quantify and/or simulate the economic-wide effects of different exogenous shocks or risk factors influencing agriculture and specifically irrigation agriculture therefore contributes to the group of already existing decision support systems available to role-players and decision makers in South Africa. In order to reach the first specific sub-objective, two sets of economic linkages between the micro and macro economic models were applied, i.e. one bottom-up or micro-to-macro and the other a top-down or macro-to-micro. The top-down linkage, utilizes the simulated results from a static Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated to a Social Accounting Martix (SAM), as inputs into a Dynamic Linear Programming (DLP) model on farm and irrigation regional level. A 20% reduction in the world price of fruits was used as simulation in the CGE model, with the main linkage between the macro and micro economic models being the changes in the local prices of fruits. Some of the key results from the micro analysis include amongst others the level of structural adjustments and other influencing factors, including the impact on farm and regional level profitability for example. With the bottom-up linkages, simulated results (i.e. the changes in the objective function values) from the regional DLP model was multiplied by three sets of economic multipliers (production, value added and labour) in order to quantify the economy-wide impacts thereof. Despite numerous shortcomings of economic multipliers, this analysis was performed to quantify in broad terms the direct, indirect and induced economy-wide impacts resulting from amongst others a 20% decrease in the local price of table grapes under various water trade and crop deviation allowances specified in the DLP model. As hypothesised, the simulated results explained above proved that significant economy-wide impacts can result from market risks or other exogenous factors influencing local irrigation agriculture, especially in a region where irrigation agriculture plays such an important role as in the NCP. It is believed that the current South African water law is comprehensive and wellwritten compared to international standards and benchmarks. The implementation thereof, in many aspects however remains a challenge. Recommendations on required institutional responses to improve the effectiveness of irrigation water utilization were made to reach the second specific sub-objective. The main conclusion from this study is that South Africa is relatively under-developed in the management of water supply and demand. In this regard, innovative technological development combined with cutting edge research in this field, is the only way in which effective water use will ultimately advance and thereby optimise the net benefit of society as a whole. It therefore calls for an integrated water resource management approach, with commitment from all role players involved. Government should provide an enabling environment, within which all levels from the private sector and communities can participate in the form of Public-Private-Partnerships (PPP) to enhance prosperous economic growth and development. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | Afrikaans: Die oorhoofse doelwit van die studie was die ontwikkelling van ‘n model wat in staat is om die ekonomiese-wye impakte van mark risiko en ander eksogene veranderlikes te kwantifiseer met spesifieke verwysing na effektiewe besproeiings water gebruik langs die oewers van die middel an laer Oranjerivier in die Noordkaap Provinsie (NKP). Die studie is gebasseer op die tweede gedeelte van ‘n breër Water Navorsings Kommisie (WNK) befondste studie, getiteld: “Mark risiko, water bestuur en die vermenigvuldiger effekte van besproeiingslandbou met verwysing na die NKP”. Een van die sub-doelwitte was om die effek van geselkteerde mark verandering(s) te simuleer, d.i. ‘n verandering in die internasional (wêreldprys) van vrugte op die provinsiale ekonomie so-wel ekonomie-wye impak van geselekteerde regionale skokke en struktuur veranderings. ‘n Tweede sub-doelwit sluit aanbevelings in aangaande institusionele reaksies vir die meer effektiewe water bestuur vir streke waat besproeiingslandbou so ‘n groot rol bydrae to die eknomie lewer soos in die NKP. Die moontlikheid om die ekonomie-wye impak te kwantifiseer of van eksogene veranderlikes te simuleer maak ‘n bydrae aan die reeds bestaande besluitnemings ondersteunings sisteme beskikbaar vir rolspelers en besluitnemers in landbou en meer spesifiek besproeiingslandbou in Suid Afrika. Om die eerste sub-doelwit te bereik is daar van twee stelle ekonomiese koppellings gebruik gemaak; eerstens ‘n mikro-na-makro of “bottom-up” en die ander ‘n makro-na-mikro of top-down. Die makro-na-mikro kopelling gebruik die sumilasie resultate van ‘n Berekende Algemene Ewewigs model wat gekalibreer is tot ‘n Sosiale Rekenings Matriksas insette to ’n Dinamiesie Lineëre Programmerings model op plaas en besproeiingsstreeks valk. Die resultate van ‘n 20% daling in die wêreldprys van vrugte is gebruik as simulasie kopelling tussen die makro en mikro ekonomiese modelle met die veranderings in die plaaslike vrugte pryse as hoof veranderlikes. Van die kern mikro-ekonomiese resultate sluit onder andere die vlak van struktuur veranderings asook ander faktore, insluitend die impak of plaas en streeks winsgewendheid byvoorbeeld. In die geval van die mikro-na-makro koppellings, is die gesimuleerde resultate (d.i. die veranderings in die doelwitfunksie waardes) van die regional DLP model vermenigvuldig met drie stelle ekonomiee vermenigvuldigers (produksie, waardetoevoeging en arbeids) om die ekonomiewye impak daarvan te bereken. Ten spyte van verskye tekortkomminge met ekonomiese ermenigvuldigers,is die analisese gedoen om ‘n breë terme die direkte, indirekte en geinduseerde impakte van onder andere ‘n 20% daling in die plaaslike prys van tafel druiwe onder verskeie water handel en gewas beperkings soos gespesifiseer in die DLP model. Soos die hipotese gestel, het die gesimuleerde effekte soos hierbo verduidelik geweldige ekonomie-wye impakte as gevolg van die mark risikos asook ander eksogene faktore wat die plaaslike besproeiingslandbou, spesifiek in streke soos die Noord-kaap waar besproeiing so kardinale deel vorm. Die huidige water wetgewing in Suid Afrika is omvattend en weldeurdag in vergelyking met internasionale standaarde. Die implementering hiervan bly steed ‘n groot uitdaging in verskeie aspekte. Voorstelle aangaande institusionele reaksies die effektiwiteit van die aanvending van besproeiingswater te verbeter word gemaak om die tweede sub-doelwit te bereik. Die hoof gewolgtrekking van die studie is dat Suid Afrika relatief onder-ontwikkel is in die bestuur van die vraag na en aanbod van water. In die verband is innoverende tegnologiese ontwikkellings, gekombineerd met “snykant” navorsing in die veld die enigste manier waarop effektiewe water gebruik bereik kan word. Daar word dus ‘n beroep gedoen vir ‘n geintegreerde water hulbron bestuurs benadering, met die inkoop van alle belanghebbendes. Die regering van die dag moet dus ‘n “enabling omgewing daar stel, waarbinne alle vlakke van die privaat sektor asook gemeenskappe kan deelneem in die vorm van Staats-privaat-ooreenkomste om volhoubare ekonomiese groei en ontwikkelling te verseker. | af |
| dc.description.sponsorship | Water Research Commission (WRC) | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/11660/4637 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | University of the Free State | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Computable General Equilibrium model | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Economic multipliers | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Effective water use | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Economy-wide | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Virtual water | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Policy framework | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Institutional response | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Social Accounting Matrix | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Risk | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Simulations | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Scenarios | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Decision support systems | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Thesis (Ph.D. (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2007 | en_ZA |
| dc.title | The macro economy and irrigation agriculture in the Northern Cape Province of South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_ZA |