Dynamism of rural mountain livelihoods under a changing climate: the case of the Eastern Free State region of South Africa
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Date
2023
Authors
Msimanga, Lokuthula
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
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Publisher
University of the Free State
Abstract
The research was conducted in the Thabo Mofutsanyane District of the Eastern Free State Region of South Africa. This region's complicated climate and topography have an impact on the environment and socioeconomic aspects of the local population. Consequently, climate change poses a significant threat to local mountain communities, directly affecting their livelihoods. As a result, local communities have developed adaptation strategies to safeguard their livelihoods. However, the success of these adaptation strategies has not been adequately analyzed in relation to climate change impacts in this region. For this reason, the study aimed at determining the most preferred adaptation strategies implemented by the local communities in Thabo Mofutsanyane District, and the extent to which these strategies could be considered effective in building resilient mountain communities. Gridded monthly maximum and minimum temperature, and average rainfall data from 1960 to 2019 were extracted from Climate Explorer. The Mann Kendall Test and Sen’s slope estimate were employed to identify the nature and magnitude of the trends and their significance. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was calculated for the January to March (JFM) and October to December (OND) subseasons and for the ONDJFM in R-Studio 1.1.1717 software. A questionnaire survey was carried out to determine the perceptions of local communities about climate trends and the impacts of climate change on rural livelihoods in the region. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and Microsoft Excel 2016 were used to analyse the data. The results indicate a significant rise in the long-term yearly mean minimum and maximum temperatures by 0.0340C/annum and 0.0110C/annum, respectively. SPI data show severe droughts occurred during the JFM sub-season in 1973 (-1.21), 1983 (-1.755), 1992 (-1.55), and 2016 (-1.10). Extreme droughts occurred in 1990 (SPI= -1.91) during the JFM sub-season. The most severe droughts (SPI <-1.645) in the OND seasons were recorded in 1994, 1990 and 2019. The respondents reported that their lives and livelihoods have shifted due to changes in climate, leading to implications for the agricultural and socio-economic systems. The adverse environmental impacts induced by climate change reported by the communities include declining water quality and quantity (67 %), crop loss (48 %), reduced crop yields (33 %), animal diseases (38 %), and livestock mortality (68 %). Households also cited climate-related socio-economic impacts, such as higher prices, loss of farm and non-farm income, and increased labour as adverse effects of climate change. Local households adopted different livelihood strategies, including new water and soil management tactics, purchasing of livestock feeds, adoption of drought resistant livestock species, and socio-economic measures. Respondents determined the effectiveness of adaptation measures based on observations of improved crop production and yields because of implementing soil management tactics and use of drought/frost resistant seed varieties; improved livestock health as a result of providing livestock with water and purchasing supplementary feeds; and improved health as a result of proper water management strategies. The research concludes that determining the contextspecific adaptation techniques that these communities can apply will depend on the mountain communities’ perceptions of climate change impacts on their livelihoods. Therefore, combining scientific knowledge with data on community perceptions and local knowledge about climate change could enhance effectiveness of climate change adaptation strategies. The study recommends evaluating the adaption strategies local communities have implemented over time and suggesting alternative coping mechanisms that could be implemented in the region.
Description
Thesis (Ph.D.(Environmental Geography))--University of the Free State, 2023