A critical appraisal of selection criteria and academic progression of first and second year medical students at the University of the Free State

English: The changing of the evaluation systems used for Grade 12 scholars in South African schools and the transformation principles of the Department of Education, compelled the University of the Free State (UFS) to start looking into alternative criteria for the selection process of medical students. One of the alternative criteria explored is the Health Science Placement Tests (HSPTs). The overall aim of this study was to assess the relationship between the HSPTs, school performance and other factors and academic performance during the first two years of study at the UFS. The specific objectives of the study were to conceptualise and contextualise the problem of selection of medical students at the UFS and to identify factors in different regions of the world that play a role in the selection of medical students by means of a thorough literature survey, but also to assess the influence of the current selection criteria and additional criteria on the performance of first and second year medical students at the UFS. A quantitative research approach was followed. The study population comprised of the first year medical students of 2004 and 2005 and second year medical students during 2005 and 2006 at the UFS. The demographic information of the students, their HSPTs results, school performance and academic performance results during first two years of study were statistically analysed to detect associations. Data for the study was obtained from the several databases of the University of the Free State and was collated by the researcher. The data management and analysis in this study was conducted by the staff of Statistical Consulting Service, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, using a variety of available statistical techniques. The correlation between all the numeric and categorical variables and the outcome variable were checked. These results showed the degree to which the variables changed together and allowed the researcher to indicate those with a predictive relationship. Strong to moderate correlations were found to be present between the averages of the first two years of study and English, Mathematics, Science and Biology of the Grade 12 marks, the PTEEP, MACH, MCOM and SRT of the HSPTs and the M-score. A weak negative correlation was found between the age of the student and whether or not they had any tertiary education and both the first and second year averages.By using the simple linear regression technique of analysis, the researcher evaluated the effect that each of the individual variables had on the first and second year averages. The following variables had a significant influence on the first two year's average marks: English, Mathematics, Science and Biology average mark, School Poverty Ouintile Index, M-score and the HSPTs average.By using a multiple regression analysis, the predictors of dependent variables upon the outcome variable were tested, while the independent variables were held fixed. After following a step-wise regression analysis, the best fit model was the model evaluating the relationship between the first and second year average marks independently and the age of the student, the English, Mathematics, Science and Biology scores of Grade 12 and the PTEEP, MACH, MCOM and SRT tests of the HSPTs and the School Poverty Ouintile Index. This model explained 50% variance of score in the first year and 70% variation of score in the second year as a result of the combination of these variables. Although some of the variables were not statistically significant, they were still of conceptual significance. From this analysis it was clear that the more variables that were included, the more reliable or predictive the model was to determine how a student would perform academically at the end of the first two years of study. The conclusion of this study was that the application of different statistical approaches presents a case for the complimentarity of data for use in selection models andapproaches. Through the exploration of different models of regression and association, a particular model was found acceptable as an indicator for good performance during the first two years of study. This choice was based on the fact that the multiple regression model was able to predict the effect that a variable would have on the outcome and the size of the effect. It was able to explain 50% variance of score in the first year and 70% variation of score in the second year and also took into account the effects of other confounding variables. This study and similar future studies will identify reliable and valid selection criteria for medical students who will perform well academically within the M.B.,Ch.B. tertiary education programme.