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dc.contributor.advisorJooste, A.
dc.contributor.advisorAlemu, Z. G.
dc.contributor.authorMokoena, Madime Reuben
dc.date.accessioned2017-01-19T08:55:40Z
dc.date.available2017-01-19T08:55:40Z
dc.date.issued2011-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11660/5365
dc.description.abstractInternational markets for agricultural products were characterised by,. amongst others, quantitative restrictions, tariff-based protection, border protection, non-tariff barriers, ete before 1995. Likewise, agricultural sector in South Africa (SA) was also faced by similar trade distorting measures during the post-apartheid era. In response to globalisation challenges, SA committed to move from protective to liberal trade regime in the agricultural sector, as witnessed by its trade diplomacy engagements with the international community in the context of multilateral, bilateral and/or regional approaches. At the multilateral level, SA has successfully implemented its commitments as negotiated in terms of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) during the Uruguay Round (UR) of General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) negotiations that gave birth to the World Trade Organization (WTO). At the bilateral level SA 'has signed a Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) with the European Union (EU) called the Trade, Development and Co-operation Agreement (TDCA) (better known as the EU-SA TDCA and includes a Free Trade Agreement). At the regional level, the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) member states including SA have signed a Protocol on Trade or a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA) with the non-SACU countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC). The main objective of the study was to measure the impact of trade agreements on the agricultural trade between SA and its trading partners. A gravity model using panel data was employed to analyze the ex-post impacts of the implementation of the trade treatments, i.e. WTO AaA, EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol on agricultural trade flows between SA and its agricultural trading partners. Various statistical tests were undertaken to select the suitable models for the datasets of total agricultural and selected agricultural products trade flows between SA and its agricultural trading partners. After the statistical tests were undertaken, 189 feasible models in total were selected, of which . 161 were dynamic models and 28 were static models. Furthermore, 152 Fixed Effects (FE), 2 Random Effects (RE) and 7 pooled Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimators were found to be efficient and suitable for the dynamic models; and 14 FE and 14 RE estimators were found to be efficient and suitable for the static models. The highest number of selected dynamic models suggested that passed trade is the predictor for current trade. The per capita ODPs of SA and of its trading partners, the real effective exchange rates and distance have also played a significant and expected role in influencing agricultural trade flows between SA and its agricultural trading partners. The results of the study have indicated that agricultural trade flows between SA and its agricultural trade partners have responded positively to the implementation of WTO AaA. The implementation of EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol during the first five years (for the period 2000 - 2004) have not delivered the expected results, as the majority of agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries were not affected and some of the agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries were negatively affected. While the majority of agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries were still not affected during the second five-year term (for the period 2005 - 2009), there were some improvements due to the significant positive effects of the EU-SA TDCA implementation on three agricultural trade flows (i.e. total agricultural trade, total cut flowers trade and total preserved fruits and nuts trade) as well as the significant positive effects of the SADC Trade Protocol implementation on four agricultural trade flows (i.e. total agricultural exports, total agricultural trade, total cut flowers trade and total fruits and vegetable juices trade). However, the number of agricultural trade flows between SA and ROW countries that have improved significantly for both periods were more than those of the EU and SADC countries, even though ROW countries did not have a trade agreement with SA. The implementation of the EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol have created room for potential increases of all the agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries for both periods. However, some of these potential increases for the period 2000 - 2004 were diverted to the other markets. On average, during the implementation of the EU-SA TDCA for the period 2000 - 2004, about 0.44% of agricultural exports, 0.96% of cut flowers exports and 0.77% of wine exports from SA destined for EU were diverted to other markets Furthermore, about 2.01% of SA's wine imports that were supposed to have been soureed from the EU countries came from SA's other wine trading partners; as well as the diversion of about 0.73% of total wine trade from the SA and EU market to either SA and other wine trading partner market or EU and other wine trading partner market. Similarly, the implementation of the SADC Trade Protocol led to diversion of agricultural exports (about 0.43%), cut flowers exports (about 0.93%), total cut flowers trade (about 0.92%), wine exports (about 0.73%), wine imports (about 1.45%) and total wine trade (about 0.35%) during the same period. \ With regard to the implementation of the EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol during the period 2005 - 2009, there was no proof of trade diversion for all agricultural trade flows, except that the was a trade creation for some of the agricultural trade flows between SA and EU countries as well as between SA and SADC countries. In the case of the EU-SA TDCA, there was trade creation on total agricultural exports, total agricultural trade, total preserved fruits and nuts trade and total wine trade. In the case of the SADC Trade Protocol, there was trade creation on total agricultural trade, cut flowers exports and preserved fruits and nuts exports. In conclusion, these findings have clearly shown that tariff reductions alone are not panacea to improve agricultural trade between SA and its major trading partners given the fact that EU-SA TDCA and SADC Trade Protocol were mainly characterized by tariff phase down schedules.en_ZA
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherUniversity of the Free Stateen_ZA
dc.subjectThesis (Ph.D. (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2011en_ZA
dc.subjectSouthern Africa Customs Unionen_ZA
dc.subjectAgricultural industries -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectCollective labor agreements -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectAgriculture -- Economic aspects -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.titleThe impacts of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements on agricultural trade in SACUen_ZA
dc.typeThesisen_ZA
dc.rights.holderUniversity of the Free Stateen_ZA


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