A decision support system to assess climate change impacts on rural communities
Abstract
English: Climate change is likely to affect the way in which people live. Natural resources such as
groundwater, surface water and wood form a vital component of the livelihood in rural communities
and are used extensively in rural areas where basic services have not yet been provided. The effect
of climate change on all these natural resource may impact the lives of those in rural communities.
Climate change is already starting to affect some of the poorest and most vulnerable communities
around the world.
The aim of the dissertation was to develop a framework to assess the vulnerability of rural
communities to climate change. This framework used the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Conceptual Framework as a guideline, but also incorporated the results of face-to-face interviews
conducted with members of a selected community. The purpose of the interviews was to interrogate
the communities’ level of awareness on climate change and to gain an understanding of the
parameters influencing the community’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change.
The developed framework allows the calculation of a numerical value which represents the
vulnerability of a community to climate change. To illustrate its application, the framework was
used to assess the vulnerability of a selected community. In the same way, the framework can be
applied to other rural communities in South Africa to assess their vulnerabilities and to prioritise
those communities where funds and resources should be allocated when combatting the impacts of
climate change.
Further work to improve the framework developed in this study is recommended. These
recommendations include:
1) considering other existing frameworks to better understand climate change impacts on rural
communities and to strengthen and improve the assessment of the vulnerabilities faced by rural
communities,
2) expanding the study to include more rural villages in order to better understand how other rural
communities are affected by climate change and to establish recommendations which could
assist in finding solutions on a wider scale for rural communities that are affected by climate
change,
3) including in the framework adaptation measures to protect biodiversity and ecological
parameters that support the livelihood of the community, and,
4) including long-term projection of the changes brought on by climate change to refine and
improve the framework. Afrikaans: Klimaatverandering sal waarskynlik die manier waarop mense leef affekteer. Natuurlike hulpbronne
soos groundwater, oppervlakwater en hout vorm ‘n intrgrale deel van die lewensbestaan van
landelike gemeenskappe, en word intens gebruik in landelike areas waar basiese dienste nog nie
verskaf is nie. Die effek van klimaatverandering op al hierdie natuurlike hulpbronne mag impakteer
op die lewens van mense in landelike gemeenskappe. Klimaatverandering is reeds besig om die
armste en mees kwesbare gemeenskappe te affekteer.
The doel van hierdie verhandeling was om ‘n raamwerk te ontwikkel om die kwesbaarheid van
landelike gemeenskappe tot klimaatverandering te assesseer. Hierdie raamwerk gebruik die
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Conceptual Framework as riglyn, maar inkorporeer oof die
resultate van aangesig-tot-aangesig onderhoude met die lede van die gekose gemeenskap. Die doel
van die onderhoude was om die gemeenskap se bewustheid rondom klimaatverandering te toets en
om ‘n begrip van die parameters te kry wat die kwesbaarheid van gemeenskappe tot
klimaatverandering beïnvloed.
Die ontwikkelde raamwerk laat die berekening van ‘n numeriese waarde toe wat die kwesbaarheid
van die gemeenskap to klimaatverandering verteenwoordig. Om die toepassing van die raamwerk te
illustreer, is dit gebruik om die die kwesbaarheid van ‘n geselekteerde gemeenskap te assesseer. Op
dieselfde manier kan die raamwerk toegepas word op ander landelike gemeenskappe in Suid-Afrika
om hul kwesbaarhede te assesseer en om daardie gemeenskappe te prioriseer waar fondse en
hulpbronne toegeken moet word om die impakte van klimaatveradering te beveg.
Verder werk om die raamwerk wat in hierdie studie ontwikkel is te verbeter word aanbeveel.
Hierdie aanbevelings sluit in:
1) inagneming van ander bestaande raamwerke om die impakte van klimaatverandering op
landelike gemeenskappe beter te verstaan, en om die assessering van kwesbaarhede deur
landelike gemeenskappe getrotseer te versterk en te verbeter,
2) uitbreiding van die studie om meer landelike dorpies in te sluit sodat beter verstaan kan word
hoe klimaat verandering landelike gemeenskappe affekteer en om aanbevelings te maak wat kan
help om oplossings op ‘n groter skaal te vind vir landelike gemeenskappe wat geaffekteer word
deur klimaatverandering,
3) insluiting in die raamwerk van aanpassingsmeganismes om biodiversiteit, asook die ekologiese
parameters wat die lewensbestaan van die gemeenskate ondersteun, te beskerm, en,
4) insluiting in die raamwerk van lang-termynvoorspellings van die veranderinge deur
klimaatverandering teweeg gebring om die raamwerk te verbeter en te verfyn.