(University of the Free State, 2008) Schoeman, Christie; Blaauw, Derick; Pretorius, Anmar
English: From 1970 to 1977 unemployment in South Africa oscillated around a near-constant
mean. Since 1983 unemployment has shown a definite upward trend defying the
existence of a long-run natural rate. South African unemployment data exhibits signs
of hysteresis, suggesting that long-run unemployment is endogenously determined.
Empirical results confirm that the total fixed capital stock, interest rate
and degree of unionisation of the labour force are important factors in explaining
the unemployment rate in South Africa. This implies that long-run equilibrium
unemployment in South Africa is endogenously determined by economic as well
as institutional factors.