Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa

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dc.contributor.authorMengistu, Achamyeleh G.
dc.contributor.authorTesfuhuney, Weldemichael A.
dc.contributor.authorWoyessa, Yali E.
dc.contributor.authorSteyn, Abraham S.
dc.date.accessioned2023-10-27T07:19:07Z
dc.date.available2023-10-27T07:19:07Z
dc.date.issued2023
dc.description.abstractInvasive alien plants are one of the main causes for the decline of native biodiversity worldwide. Hence, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of invasive plants in the context of a changing climate. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the potential distribution of two major invasive alien plants, Prosopis spp and Acacia mearnsii, under current and future climate change scenarios across South Africa. The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was used with species occurrence data and bioclimatic variables. The Species occurrence data was obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), while the bioclimatic variables were downloaded from the WorldClim database. The model evaluation metrics for training and test samples were the area under curve (AUC) of 0.76 and 0.77 for Prosopis spp, and 0.91 and 0.89 for A. mearnsii, respectively. It showed that MaxEnt performed well in mapping the distribution of both species. Model results indicated that the near-current potential distribution of Prosopis spp and A. mearnsii in South Africa is significant (93.8% and 9.7% of the total land area, respectively). With the projected climate, Prosopis spp showed an inconsistent result across the General Circulation Models (GCMs), projection times and climate change scenarios. However, with respect to the current potential distribution, the geographical ranges of A. mearnsii will significantly contract (by about 75%) due to climate change. Therefore, it is imperative that policy makers, environmental managers and other stakeholders implement integrated management and control strategies to restrict the distribution of Prosopis spp.en_ZA
dc.description.versionPublisher's versionen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMengistu, A. G., Tesfuhuney, W. A., Woyessa, Y. E., & Steyn, A. S. (2023). Potential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africa. Heliyon, 9(9). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19867en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn2405-8440 (online)
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19867
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11660/12319
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherElsevieren_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthor(s)en_ZA
dc.rights.licensehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/en_ZA
dc.subjectMaxEnt modelen_ZA
dc.subjectclimate changeen_ZA
dc.subjectSouth Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectprosopis sppen_ZA
dc.subjecta. mearnsiien_ZA
dc.subjectpotential distributionen_ZA
dc.subjectinvasive alien plantsen_ZA
dc.titlePotential distribution of selected invasive alien plants under current and future climate change scenarios in South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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