Doctoral Degrees (Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences)

Permanent URI for this collection

http://hdl.handle.net/11660/466

Browse

Browsing Doctoral Degrees (Soil, Crop and Climate Sciences) by Subject "Agroclimatological risk tool"

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
  • Thumbnail Image
    ItemOpen Access
    Agroclimatological risk assessment of rainfed maize production for the Free State Province of South Africa
    (University of the Free State, 2010-12) Moeletsi, Mokhele Edmond; Walker, Sue; Landman, Willem A.
    English: The risks associated with climate and its variability over the Free State Province is the major determining factor for agricultural productivity, and has a major impact on food security across the province. To improve productivity of agricultural lands, producers and decisions makers have to be provided with relevant agrometeorological information that will enable them to make appropriate decisions. This has lead to the investigation of this agroclimatological risk assessment for maize production in the Free State. The ultimate goal was to characterize the agroclimatological risks impacting negatively on dryland maize production and develop a climate risk tool that will assist the stakeholders in their management of agricultural lands. First, meteorological data needed to perform this study was prepared by looking specifically at filling the missing data gaps and using alternative data in cases where measured data was not available to obtain good spatial distribution of weather stations. Frost was identified as one of the climate hazards affecting the maize plant in the Free State. Three frost severity categories were analysed, namely 2°C, 0°C and -2°C representing light, medium and heavy frost respectively. The onset of frost for all the thresholds was earlier over the northern, eastern and far southeastern parts of the Free State province while places over the western and southwestern parts of the province the first frost dates are later. The northern and eastern parts are also marked by late cessation of frost giving a shorter frost-free period (220-240 days at medium frost severity). The western and southwestern areas mostly have earlier cessation of frost resulting in relatively long frostfree period with ranges from 241 to 300 days at medium frost severity level. Cessation of frost occurring later than normal over the Free State can impact negatively on the maize crop if planted in October and early November, especially over the highlands. Productivity of the crops can also be hampered by earlier than normal onset of frost that affects maize at silking and grain-filling stages. The onsets and cessation of rains together with the duration of the rainy season also play an important role in agricultural planning. Over 300 stations across the Free State were analysed to characterize the rainy season. The onsets of rains were found to be early over the eastern parts of the province with median onsets on or earlier than 10 October. In most areas over the Fezile Dabi and Motheo districts, onsets are between 11 to 30 October while over the Lejweleputswa onsets are mostly between 21 October and 10 November. Most of the western parts of Xhariep experience later than 21 November at 50% risk level. The cessation of rains does not vary much over the Free State with most places having their median last rains between 21 April and 30 April. Rainy season lengths are longer over the Thabo Mofutsanyane district with over 200 days in some places. The ENSO episodes are related to Free State seasonal rainfall variability but only have slight effect on the cessation of rains while onsets of rains showed no differences between El Niño or La Niña phases as compared to all the years. In El Niño years the seasonal rainfall amount is lower than normal, being higher than normal in La Niña years which support findings from other studies. The cessation of rains occurs earlier in El Niño years and later than normal in La Niña years. Agricultural drought is one of the most devastating hazards affecting maize production in most growing periods depending on the location. It is important to plant during periods which minimise drought conditions. In this study a simple water balance model developed by FAO called WRSI was used to quantify drought risk. When using the 120-day maize cultivar as a reference, drought index over most parts of the Lejweleputswa, Xhariep and eastern parts of the Motheo district show high vulnerability (WRSI<40) for October planting dates while other areas have relatively low risk of drought. In December and January planting dates drought index over most parts of the province showed much improvement but places that showed low risk are over the Thabo Mofutsanyane, Fezile Dabi and pockets of northern Lejweleputswa district. Poone AgroClimatic Suitability Index (PACSI) was introduced to integrate all the climate hazards affecting maize production in the Free State. The index in made from the combination of frost probability over the growing period, non-exceedence probability of onset of rains and agricultural drought index. The index was further used to delineate the suitable areas across the Free State for planting maize variety requiring 1420 growing degree days (heat units) to maturity. The findings obtained from the resulting maps show areas of high maize production suitability over the Thabo Mofutsanyane district for mid-October to early November planting dates. Places over Fezile Dabi and northern parts of the Lejweleputswa district also showed high suitability of maize especially for planting from mid-November to end of December. The western and southern Xhariep district area is not suitable for planting maize while other marginal dryland maize production areas include western Motheo, southwestern Lejweleputswa and most parts of the central and eastern Xhariep. To conclude the study, the Free State Maize Agroclimatological Risk Tool (FS-MACRT) was developed to provide agroclimatological risk information important to the production of rainfed maize in the Free State Province. The tool is to be used by the farmers, extension officers, policy-makers and agricultural risk advisors. The tool has two main parts, 1) climatological risk and 2) forecasting. The climatological risk enables the user to obtain drought stress risk for the 100-day, 120-day and 140-day maize cultivars for planting window starting in October to January. The best planting dates based on the risk associated with the climatology onset and cessation of both rains and frost can be determined. Using climate forecasts obtained from the national forecasting centres, drought index can be predicted for different planting dates giving the farmer valuable information when planning for the coming season. The tool also has the functionality of predicting onsets of rains using weather and climate forecasts.