An investigation into the determinants of the South African unemployment rate, 1970-2002

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Date
2008Author
Schoeman, Christie
Blaauw, Derick
Pretorius, Anmar
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English: From 1970 to 1977 unemployment in South Africa oscillated around a near-constant
mean. Since 1983 unemployment has shown a definite upward trend defying the
existence of a long-run natural rate. South African unemployment data exhibits signs
of hysteresis, suggesting that long-run unemployment is endogenously determined.
Empirical results confirm that the total fixed capital stock, interest rate
and degree of unionisation of the labour force are important factors in explaining
the unemployment rate in South Africa. This implies that long-run equilibrium
unemployment in South Africa is endogenously determined by economic as well
as institutional factors. Afrikaans: Die Suid-Afrikaanse werkloosheidskoers het van 1970 tot 1977 rondom ’n bynakonstante
gemiddelde beweeg. Sedert 1983 is daar ’n duidelike opwaartse neiging
wat die bestaan van ’n langtermyn
natuurlike werkloosheidskoers weerspreek.
Histerese blyk teenwoordig te wees in Suid-Afrikaanse werkloosheidsyfers wat dui op
die endogene aard van langtermyn werkloosheid. Empiriese ontleding
bevestig dat
totale vaste kapitaalvoorraad, rentekoerse en die invloed van vakbondbedrywighede
in die arbeidsmag belangrike bydraers tot Suid-Afrikaanse werkloosheid is. Die
langtermyn ewewigsvlak van werkloosheid word endogeen bepaal deur ekonomiese
sowel as institusionele faktore.