National saving and fiscal policy in South Africa: an empirical analysis

Abstract

English: This article studies the dynamics of gross national saving, government saving and private saving in response to fiscal shocks, by using the impulse response functions (IRF) obtained from the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR). This article aims to determine the extent to which fiscal policy influences savings in South Africa, and to test whether the Ricardian equivalence proposition holds in South Africa. It concludes that the full Ricardian equivalence does not hold in the short term, and in the long term the response of national saving to fiscal policy shocks is neutral.

Afrikaans: Hierdie artikel bestudeer die dinamiek van bruto nasionale besparing, owerheidsen privaatsektorbesparing in reaksie op fiskale skokke, deur gebruik te maak van impuls-reaksiefunksies (IRF) wat van die strukturele vektor outoregressiewe (SVOR) model verkry is. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die omvang van fiskale beleid se invloed op besparing in Suid-Afrika te bepaal asook om te toets of die Ricardiese gelykwaardigheidstelling in Suid-Afrika geld. Die gevolgtrekking is dat die volledige Ricardiese gelykwaardigheidstelling nie in die korttermyn geld nie en dat die reaksie van nasionale besparing tot fiskale skokke in die langtermyn neutraal is.