National saving and fiscal policy in South Africa: an empirical analysis
Abstract
English: This article studies the dynamics of gross national saving, government saving and
private saving in response to fiscal shocks, by using the impulse response functions
(IRF) obtained from the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR). This article aims
to determine the extent to which fiscal policy influences savings in South Africa,
and to test whether the Ricardian equivalence proposition holds in South Africa. It
concludes that the full Ricardian equivalence does not hold in the short term, and in
the long term the response of national saving to fiscal policy shocks is neutral. Afrikaans: Hierdie artikel bestudeer die dinamiek van bruto nasionale besparing, owerheidsen
privaatsektorbesparing in reaksie op fiskale skokke, deur gebruik te maak van
impuls-reaksiefunksies (IRF) wat van die strukturele vektor outoregressiewe
(SVOR) model verkry
is. Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die omvang van fiskale
beleid se invloed op besparing in Suid-Afrika te bepaal asook om te toets of die
Ricardiese gelykwaardigheidstelling in Suid-Afrika geld. Die gevolgtrekking is
dat die volledige
Ricardiese gelykwaardigheidstelling
nie in die korttermyn geld
nie en dat die reaksie van nasionale besparing tot fiskale skokke in die langtermyn
neutraal is.