Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings
Abstract
English: The purpose of this article is to research the effect of climate change on the
South African city and to recommend appropriate measures, based on the specific
climatic zone. With increased climate change, it is getting increasingly important that
the South African city should be resilient. Recently, the CSIR produced new climate
and energy maps to replace the SANS 204 (2011) South African National Building
Standards six zone climatic region map. To ensure the long-term applicability of the
new climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data,
climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the
Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht
et al., 2011: 649) was used. An A2 scenario can be described as business as usual.
Recent research predicts that southern Africa can expect a temperature increase
of between 4°C to 6°C in hot western dessert areas (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht,
2016: 247-261). Simultaneously, the amount of energy in the atmosphere increases,
causing higher intensity storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). The significant warming
will have a severe impact on cities where the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI)
causes cities to be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. These factors
indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on the southern African city. Afrikaans: Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die effek van klimaatverandering op die Suid-
Afrikaanse stad te ondersoek en toepaslike maatreëls aan die hand te doen,
gebaseer op die spesifieke klimaatstreek. Met toenemende klimaatverandering
word dit al hoe belangriker dat Suid-Afrikaanse stede veerkragtig (resilient) moet
wees. Onlangs is nuwe klimaat- en energiekaarte by die WNNR geproduseer om die
huidige SANS 204 (2011) Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Boustandaard ses sonekaart te
vervang. Ten einde die langtermyn toepaslikheid van die kaart te verseker, is daar bo
en behalwe die gebruik van historiese klimaatdata ook data oor klimaatverandering
in berekening gebring om die kaart te skep. ʼn A2 klimaatverandering van die Special
Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) vir die periode 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht,
Landman, Engelbrecht, Landman, Bopape, Roux, McGregor & Thatcher, 2011: 649)
is gebruik. ʼn A2 scenario kan beskryf word as besigheid soos gewoon. Volgens
onlangse navorsing kan suidelike Afrika ʼn temperatuurstyging van tussen 4°C tot
6°C verwag in die westelike warm woestyngebiede van suidelike Afrika (Engelbrecht
& Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Terselfdertyd verhoog die hoeveelheid energie in die
atmosfeer wat lei tot ʼn verhoogde intensiteit van storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688).
Die toenemende verwarming sal ʼn groot impak op stede hê waar die sogenaamde
Stedelike Hitte Eiland (SHE)-effek veroorsaak dat die stede heelwat warmer
word as die omliggende landelike gebiede. Al bogenoemde faktore toon aan dat
klimaatverandering ʼn aansienlike impak op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad sal hê. SeSotho: Sepheo sa atikele ena ke ho batlisisa dikgahlamelo tsa phetoho ya maemo a lehodimo
motsetoropong wa Afrika Borwa le ho kgothalletsa mekgwa e tshwanelehileng ho ya ka maemo a kgethehileng a lehodimo.
Ka baka la ho eketseha ha phetoho ya
boemo ba lehodimo, ho ntse ho eba
bohlokwa le ho feta hore motsetoropo
wa Afrika Borwa o elwe hloko.
Haufinyana, CSIR e entse di mmepe
tse ntjha tsa maemo a lehodimo le tsa
matla a motlakase ho tlosa mmapa
wa SANS 202 (2011) South African
National Building Standards six zone
climate region. Ho etsa bonnete ba
hore ho na le mmapa o motjha wa
maemo a lehodimo o tshwanelehileng
bakeng sa nako e telele, ho entswe
qeto ya hore ka hodima tshebetso ya
pokello ya dintlha tsa nalane; phetoho
maemong a lehodimo le yona e tlameha
ho elwa hloko. Ho sebedisitswe A2 ya
tlhaloso ya diketsahalo tse tla etsahala
tsa nako e tlang mabapi le phetoho ya
maemo a lehodimo ya Special Report
on Emission Senarios (SRES) nakong
ya 1961 ho fihlela 2100 (Engelbrecht
et al., 2011: 649). Tlhaloso ya A2 ya
diketsahalo tse tla etsahala nakong
e tlang e ka hlaloswa e le mosebetsi
wa tlwaelo. Dipatlisiso tsa nakwana e
fetileng di lepa hore Afrika e ka Borwa
e ka lebella nyoloho ya themphereitjha
pakeng tsa 4 ho ya ho 6 °C dibakeng tse
chesang tsa lehwatata le ka Bophirima
(Engelbrecht et al., 2016: 247-261).
Nakong yona eo, palo ya matla
sepakapakeng/sebakeng e a nyoloha,
hona ho etsa hore hobe le difefo tse
matla (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688).
Mofuthu o matla o tla ba le kgahlamelo
e mpe haholo bakeng sa metsetoropo
moo Urban Heat Island (UHI) e etsang
hore e be mofuthu haholo, ho feta
dibaka tsa mapolasi tse e potapotileng.
Dintlha tse boletsweng ka hodimo di
bontsha hore ho tla ba le kgahlamelo e
kgolo bakeng sa metsetoropo e Borwa
ba Afrika ka baka la phetoho ya maemo
a lehodimo.