Economic and demographic trends of municipalities in South Africa: an application of Zipf’s rule

Abstract

English: There are vast differences among South African local municipalities, with a limited number of large municipalities (both in terms of population size and economic activity) and a seemingly disproportionate number of intermediate-sized and small municipalities. No clear systematic national approach has yet been adopted to assess the distribution of core variables at municipal level in South Africa. Zipf’s rule, which postulates a consistent regularity in the size and rank of cities, is applied to disaggregate the performance of South African local municipalities in terms of three variables (population, Gross Value Added and municipal income) within the overall national settlement pattern. The results indicate that the Zipf rank size rule distribution is applicable to municipal level population data in South Africa, but less so for Gross Value Added and municipal income. The position and relative changes of municipalities along the Zipf curve between 2001 and 2011 also provide plausible indications of potential future trajectories of the three variables classified according to the dominant settlement typology within each municipality. The results also emphasise the significant conceptual limitations when using only legally defined administrative municipal boundaries for analysis purposes without also considering economically functional boundaries.

Afrikaans: Daar is wesenlike verskille tussen Suid-Afrikaanse munisipaliteite wat gekenmerk word deur ’n beperkte aantal groot munisipaliteite (in terme van bevolking en ekonomiese aktiwiteite) en ’n skynbaar buite verhouding groot aantal middelgroot en klein munisipaliteite. Op nasionale vlak is daar tans geen sistematiese benadering om die verspreiding van sleutelveranderlikes op munisipale vlak te beoordeel nie. Zipf se reël veronderstel ’n konsekwente reëlmatigheid in die grootte en rangorde van stede en word toegepas om die tendense van Suid-Afrikaanse munisipaliteite in terme van bevolking, ekonomiese produksie en munisipale inkomste binne die nasionale vestigingspatroon te beoordeel. Die resultate toon dat Zipf se rangorde-grootte reël van toepassing is op die verspreiding van bevolking op munisipale vlak, maar nie tot dieselfde mate vir ekonomiese produksie en munisipale inkomste nie. Die posisie en relatiewe veranderings van munisipaliteite op die Zipf-kurwe tussen 2001 en 2011 kan aanduidings verskaf van moontlike toekomstige neigings van die drie veranderlikes op munisipale vlak. Die resultate beklemtoon die moontlik beperkende invloed van die gebruik van administratiewe grense sonder inagneming van ekonomies funksionele grense.

SeSotho: Ho na le phapang tse kholo hara bo masepala a Afrika Borwa (ka moruo le palo ea batho). Ho bonahala ebile bo masepala ba sa lekane ka matla. Ha ho na tshebeliso e tloaelehileng e sebelisong ka mehla ka hara masepala naheng ea Afrika Borwa. Molao oa Zipf o bontsha hore tshebeliso ena e tlameha hjo ba teng ka hara masepala hore masepala u tle u khone hore u atlehe dintlheng tsena tse tharo e leng ( palo ea batho, moruo le mokholo oa masepala). Ditlamorao tsa molao ona di bontsha molao ona u ka sebedisoa masepaleng o mong le o mong naheng ea Afrika Borwa. Diphetoho tsa bo masepala ho molao oa Zipf mahareng a selemo sa 2001 ho isa ho 2011, di bontsha molao ona u fana ka bokamoso bo phethahetseng oa bo masepala. Dipheto di bontsa hore molao oa Zipf u thusa le ho feta ha ho sebetsoa ho sheboe nthla e le ngoe fela ho sa chejoe tse ding.