Spatial policy, planning and infrastructure investment: lessons from urban simulations in three South African cities

Abstract

English: This article is based on the assumption that more spatially efficient investment choices in both economic and basic infrastructure spending can make a significant impact on the equity, efficiency and sustainability of human settlements. Emerging from work conducted as part of a Department of Science and Technology (DST)- funded Integrated Planning and Development Modelling (IPDM) project, the article argues that decisions about infrastructure investment in South African metropolitan areas ought to be grounded in robust and rigorous analysis and scenario evaluation. More evidence, and better evidence, an understanding of spatial trends and the underlying forces that shape them, are needed to support planning and infrastructure investment. Urban simulation platforms offer valuable tools in this regard. Findings of simulation work in three metropolitan areas (eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay and Johannesburg) are presented to demonstrate this, and some implications for spatial policy, planning and infrastructure investment are highlighted.

Afrikaans: Die artikel is gebaseer op die aanname dat ruimtelik-effektiewe beleggingkeuses in beide ekonomiese en basiese infrastruktuurbesteding ’n beduidende impak op die gelykheid, effektiwiteit en volhoubaarheid van menslike nedersettings kan hê. Werk wat gedoen is as deel van die Integrated Planning and Development Modelling (IPDM)-projek, en befonds is deur die Departement Wetenskap en Tegnologie, argumenteer dat besluite omtrent infrastruktuurinvestering in Suid-Afrikaanse metropolitaanse gebiede gegrond moet word in robuuste en grondige analise en scenario evaluering. Meer bewyse, asook beter bewyse, sowel as ’n begrip van ruimtelike tendense en hul onderliggende kragte is noodsaaklik om beplanning- en infrastruktuurinvestering voldoende te ondersteun. Stedelike simulasie platforms bied waardevolle instrumente in hierdie verband, en bevindinge omtrent simulasie werk wat gedoen is in drie metropolitaanse gebiede (eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Baai en Johannesburg) word voorgelê om dit te demonstreer. Sommige implikasies vir ruimtelike beplanning, beleid en belegging in infrastruktuur word ook uitgelig.

SeSotho: Serapa sena se tobana le monahano oa hore ho etsa diqeto tsa ho kenya chelete moruong le dithulusing tsa ntlafatso ya teropo, ho ntso beuoe dibaka menahanong, ho ka thusa haholo ka ho thusa haholo ka ho lekana ha batho, tshebetso e phethahetseng kda ho tlala, le tswediso pele ya bolulo ba batho. Ho tsoa mesebetsing ya Lefapha la Saensi le Thekenoloji (DST) e bile e tsheheditsoe ka chelete ya projeke ya Integrated Planning and Modelling (IPDM), serapa sena se thuisa taba ya hore diqeto tse etsoeng ka dichelete tsa dithulusi tsa ntlafatso ya teropo Afrika Borwa di hloka ho shebisisoa ka botebo boo matla. Kekektso ya bopaki, le bopaki bo betere, kutloisiso ya diphetho tsa dibaka tse kholo le tse ding tse ka di qheketsang, di hlokahala kaofela ho tshehetsa merero le dichelete tse eang dithulusing tsa ho ntlafatsa teropo. Methati e nkoang hore e tsebe ho ntlafatsa teropo ke eona e bohlokoa ho fan aka maeletsi tabeng tsena. Mehlala e tsoang teropong tse tharo tsa Afrika Borwa (e leng eThekwini, Nelson Mandela Bay le Johannesburg) ke eona e hlahisitsoeng ho bontsha taba ena le ditla morao tsa maano a dibaka tse kholo, chelete ya dithulusi tsa ntlafatso ya teropo le merero dia hlaha serapeng sena.