Using election registration data to measure migration trends in South Africa

Abstract

English: Migration is critical for policy agendas and government planning as it changes the demographic composition of towns, cities and regions – this requires adjustments to service and infrastructure provision. To develop suitable policy responses, reliable, comparable and timely information is required. Obvious sources of migration data are the national census and household and labour surveys. Socio-economic data have not dealt well with migration. A recent CSIR research project, Spatial and Temporal Evidence for Planning in South Africa1 (StepSA), explored the use of voter registration information as an alternative source of migration data. Anonymised voter registration data were provided by the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa for several consecutive elections covering a 12-year period. The data, once spatialised (and related to a single set of voting districts), could then be processed to extract movement trends between different election periods. This article describes the process applied and the initial analyses conducted.

Afrikaans: Migrasie is krities belangrik vir beleidsformulering en ruimtelike beplanning gegewe die demografiese samestelling van dorpe en stede wat daardeur geraak word. Bykomend beïnvloed dit ook infrastruktuur- en diensteverskaffing. Die bekendste bron van sodanige inligting is Statistieke Suid-Afrika wat migrasiedata publiseer wat versamel is deur die tien-jaarlikse sensus asook deur die arbeid- en gesinsopnames. Sosioekonomise data bevat in die algemeen nie veel migrasiedata nie. ’n Onlangse projek genaamd “Spatial and Temporal Evidence for Planning in South Africa2 (StepSA)” het die moontlikheid verken om kiesersregistrasiedata as ’n alternatiewe bron van migrasiedata te benut. Geanonimiseerde kiesersdata is verskaf deur die Onafhanklike Verkiesingskommissie (OVK) van Suid-Afrika vir verskeie verkiesings wat oor ’n periode van 12 jaar gestrek het. Die data is ruimtelik verwerk en geprosesseer om die bewegings van persone tussen verskillende verkiesings te onttrek. Hierdie artikel beskryf die proses kortliks en ook die aanvanklike bevindinge.

SeSotho: Ho falla ke nnthoe bohlokosa ha ho nahanoa ka maano le merero ya mmuso ka ha e le eona nthoe fetolang boemo ba dipalo tsa sechaba ka hara teropo tse nyane le tse kholo, hammoho le mahaeng- sena se hloka diphetoho ditshebeletsong tsa batho le phano ya dithulusi tsa ntlafatso ya teropo le mahaeng. Ho tswedisa pele maano a phethahetseng mme a tshepahalang, tsebo e bapisehang le e fihlang ka nako e ya hlokahala. Mehlodi ya boitsebeso e tsebahalang ha ho buoa ka ho falla ke National Census le Household and Labour Surveys. Tsebo e hlahang dithutong tsa sechaba le meruo ya dibaka, ha e so ka e thetsana le ho falla. Pojeke ya dipatliso e qetang ho hlaha hautsoanyane e tsoang ho CSIR, e bitsoang ‘Spatial and Temporal Evidence for Planning in South Africa’ (stepSA) e shebene le tshebediso ya ditaba le tsebo e tsoang dingodiso tsa dikhetho ho shebisa taba ya ho falla ha batho ka hara naha. Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa, e ile ya fan aka tsebo eo e nang le eona ya dingodiso tsa dikhetho Afrika Borwa ho tloha dilemo tse leshome le metso e mebedi e fetileng ho fihlela joale. Hang hore tsebo eo e aroloe ka dibaka ( e beoue ka ditereke tseo e hlokang ho ba ho tsona), e ile ya sebedisoa ho sheba mekhoa ya ho falla ha batho ho tloha diterekeng tse ding ho ya ho tse ding hara dinako tse fapaneng tsa dikhetho. Serapa sena se bontsha mokhoa o sebedisitsoeng ho etsa sena, hape se bontsha le dilta morao tse fumanoeng.