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dc.contributor.advisorJooste, André
dc.contributor.advisorLe Clus, Kit
dc.contributor.authorVan Wyk, Marcel
dc.date.accessioned2016-01-06T10:19:51Z
dc.date.available2016-01-06T10:19:51Z
dc.date.copyright2007-11
dc.date.issued2007-11
dc.date.submitted2007-11
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11660/2002
dc.description.abstractEnglish: During the last century, human life and the quality of living have been impacted significantly through continuous developments in science and technology. Man has evolved himself from a hunter and gatherer to the modern man whose lives are enriched with products that relate to information and communication technology, biotechnology and info-space technology. The domestication of biotechnology may dominate our lives during the next fifty years at least as much as the domestication of computers has dominated our lives during the previous fifty years. The advent of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) has brought rapid change to world agricultural production and trade. Evidence shows that Genetically Modified (GM) crops can have a yield advantage over conventional crops. Currently 46% of the total area utilised in maize production in South Africa is planted with GM maize. South Africa’s main trading partners in maize have differing GMO regimes, and many of them may well change their current stances and regulations as the international conventions and agreements on GMOs further evolve. Over and above this regulatory framework, consumer attitudes to GM foods are also changing. The objective of the study is to calculate and quantify the potential impacts of GM maize on the South African maize trade, by applying the GTAP model. This will provide scientific input to South African policy makers on GM maize related regulations in the domestic market, as well as on their stances in the international conventions. The GTAP model is generally accepted by trade researchers as the most suitable tool to analyse the impact of trade policy decisions on trade flows and national welfare on a global level due to its regional and sectoral coverage as well as its theoretical compliance. The results suggest that the South African policy to allow the domestic production of approved GM maize events was to the benefit of the country. Policy measures that will restrict the country’s access to new GM maize events will gradually disadvantage both the domestic producers and consumers of maize. The consumers will suffer a decrease in total welfare whilst the producers will be disadvantaged in terms of imported competition. For this reason, commodity clearance before general release should be the exception rather than the rule. In terms of future studies on this issue to further refine the results of this study specific effort should be afforded to improve the changes made to disaggregate the maize sector from other grain sectors, nationally and internationally, in the GTAP model. In addition, it is recommended that trade flows between countries as included in the GTAP model should be scrutinised in detail to check for the correctness of actual flows. This would entail a proper evaluation of the base data of the GTAP model specific to countries playing a relatively smaller role in the international trade of agricultural products. Neglecting to do the aforementioned could result in incorrect policy recommendations.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractAfrikaans: Gedurende die afgelope eeu het die voortdurende ontwikkleing in wetenskap en tegnologie ’n betekenisvolle invloed op die menslike lewe en die gehalte daarvan uitgeoefen. Die mens het van jagter en versamelaar gevorder tot moderne wesens wie se lewens verryk word met produkte wat verband hou met kommunikasie-tegnologie, biotegnologie en info-ruimte-tegnologie. Bio-tegnologie kan dalk die volgende vyftig jaar ons lewens in dieselfde mate oorheers as wat rekenaars ons lewens die afgelope vyftig jaar oorheers het. Die koms van geneties gemodifiseerde organismes (GMOs) het ’n vinnige ommekeer in wêreld-landbouproduksie en –handel teweeggebring. Daar is bewys dat geneties gemodifiseerde (GM)-gewasse ’n oes-voordeel bo konvensionele gewasse het. Tans is 46% van die totale gebied wat vir mielieproduksie aangewend word in Suid-Afrika, met GM-mielies beplant. Suid-Afrika se belangrikste handelsvennote in mielies het uiteenlopende GMO-stelsels en namate die internasionale konvensies en ooreenkomste oor GMO’s verder op die voorgrond tree, sal baie van hulle heel waarskynlik hulle huidige standpunte en regulasies wysig. Bo en behalwe hierdie regulatoriese raamwerk, is die houding van verbruikers jeens GM-voedsel ook aan die verander. Die doel van die studie is om die potensiële impak van GM-mielies op die Suid- Afrikaanse mieliehandel te bereken en te bepaal deur toepassing van die GTAP-model. Dit sal Suid-Afrikaanse beleidmakers van wetenskaplike insette oor verwante regulasies op die plaaslike mark ten opsigte van GM-mielies voorsien en dit kan ook hulle standpunte beïnvloed wat hulle op internasionale konvensies kan inneem. Weens die streeks- en sektorale strekking en die teoretiese meegaandheid daarvan, word die GTAPmodel algemeen deur navorsers wat spesialiseer in internasionale handel aanvaar as die toepaslikste middel ter ontleding van die impak van handelsbeleidsbesluite op handelsvloei en nasionale welvaart op wêreldvlak. Die resultate dui daarop dat die Suid-Afrikaanse beleid om plaaslike produksie van goedgekeurde GM-mielies toe te laat, die land tot voordeel strek. Beleidsmaatreëls wat die land se toegang tot nuwe GM-mielie-gewasse beperk, sal uiteindelik tot nadeel van plaaslike produsente, sowel as mielieverbruikers lei. Die verbruikers se welvaart sal negatief beinvloed word, terwyl die produsente ten opsigte van invoer-mededinging benadeel sal word. Daarom moet kommoditiet-goedkeuring voor algemene vrystelling eerder die uitsondering wees as die reël. Sover dit toekomstige studie oor hierdie onderwerp aangaan om die resultate van hierdie studie verder te verfyn, moet daar veral gepoog word om die veranderings (nasionaal en internasionaal) wat gemaak is om die mieliesektor van ander graansektore af te sonder in the GTAP-model, te verbeter. Daar word ook aanbeveel dat handelsvloei tussen lande soos huidiglik in die GTAP-model ingesluit is deeglik nagegaan behoort te word om die korrektheid daarvan te bepaal. Dit sal ’n deeglike ontleding inhou van die basisdata van die GTAP-model, veral vir lande wat ’n relatiewe klein rol speel in die internasionale handel van landbouprodukte. Indien nagelaat word om dit te doen, kan dit tot foutiewe beleidsaanbevelings lei.af
dc.language.isoenen_ZA
dc.publisherUniversity of the Free Stateen_ZA
dc.subjectDissertation (M.Sc.Agric. (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2007en_ZA
dc.subjectGlobal Trade Analysis Projecten_ZA
dc.subjectCorn industry -- Economic aspects -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectGenetically modified foodsen_ZA
dc.titleTrade and welfare implications of genetically modified maize on South Africaen_ZA
dc.typeDissertationen_ZA
dc.rights.holderUniversity of the Free Stateen_ZA


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