Solomon, H.Mahlakeng, Mahlakeng Khosi2018-01-232018-01-232017http://hdl.handle.net/11660/7681Thesis (Ph.D.(Political Science))--University of the Free State, 2017𝑬𝒏𝒈𝒍𝒊𝒔𝒉 For much of the past century, the hydropolitical landscape of African transboundary river basins has been affected by water scarcity. The analysis of hydropolitics is referred to here as the politics of water, which symbolises the most complex relations and interactions between states that share river basins. According to Elhance (2000:202), such hydropolitics is a function of two variables: the rate of change in the hydrologic system and the institutional capacity to absorb that change. The United Nations (UN) identified the Orange-Senqu, the Nile and the Niger River basins, along with six other African river basins susceptible to potential water-induced conflict, as being at risk of tensions and/or conflict. The discourse and interest of this study in water as a potential source of conflict concentrates largely on the Orange-Senqu, the Nile and the Niger river basins. This study takes a comparative perspective of these transboundary river basins and outlines foreseeable transboundary river challenges for regional security, considering the impact of environmental scarcity. The selection of these basins is prompted by these regions being marked by serious environmental challenges that are detrimental to combustible hydropolitics over such shared water resources. Moreover, these cases are situated in three different regions and are aligned to different already functional regimes, with protocols and/or charters on shared watercourse. As such, they make for a helpful comparative case study analysis. These cases provide ideal and fascinating examples of the links between climate variability and change, water resources, human security, conflict, adaptation and regime capacity. The transboundary Orange-Senqu River Basin, located in the Southern African region is, after the Congo and the Zambezi river basins, the third largest river catchment in Africa. The basin stretches over four countries that includes all of Lesotho, a large portion of South Africa, southern Namibia and southwestern Botswana. The Orange-Senqu basin faces challenges of water scarcity due to soil erosion, wetland degradation, pollution, irrigation, mining, industries, population growth, power generation and domestic consumption. The unequal distribution of freshwater resources is also a fundamental factor posing a threat to the economic and social development of the Southern African region. The Nile River Basin (NRB), located in the region of North East Africa is an international river shared by eleven riparian countries. These are Burundi, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan and South Sudan. This makes it the world’s longest river at about 6,700km or 4,100 miles. The NRB faces considerable challenges including rapid population growth, water scarcity as the NRB countries are known for their arid and semi-arid conditions, poverty, environmental degradation and uneven distribution of the Nile waters. The NRB is centrally challenged by disputes over the unequal use of water between upstream and downstream riparian countries. The Niger River, located in West Africa, is the third longest river in Africa after the Nile and Congo, flowing for 4,200 km and extending into 10 countries (Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon and Nigeria). The Niger River Basin also faces challenges of population growth (with a total population of approximately 100 million and a growth rate of around 3%), agricultural run-off, oil production (the source of a host of environmental issues) and climate change, among other challenges. Regarding the institutions and institutional capacity required to promote cooperation among member countries and ensure the integrated development of resources, the study focuses on the Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM), the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), and the Niger Basin Authority (NBA). ___________________________________________________________________𝑨𝒇𝒓𝒊𝒌𝒂𝒂𝒏𝒔 Vir 'n groot deel van die afgelope eeu is die hidropolitieke landskap van Afrika-oorgrensrivierkomme deur waterskaarste geraak. Daar word hier na die ontleding van hidropolitiek verwys as die politiek van water, wat die mees komplekse verhoudings en interaksies simboliseer tussen state wat rivierkomme deel. Volgens Elhance (2000:202) is sulke hidropolitiek 'n funksie van twee veranderlikes: die tempo van verandering in die hidrologiese sisteem en die institusionele kapasiteit om daardie verandering te absorbeer. Die Verenigde Nasies (VN) het die Oranje-Senqu-, die Nyl- en die Nigerrivierkomme, saam met ses ander Afrika-rivierkomme wat vatbaar is vir potensiële watergeïnduseerde 424-konflik, geïdentifiseer as 'n risiko vir spanning en/of konflik. Die diskoers en belangstelling van hierdie studie in water as 'n potensiële bron van konflik konsentreer grootliks op die Oranje/Senqu-, die Nyl- en die Niger-rivierkomme. Hierdie studie neem 'n vergelykende perspektief van hierdie oorgrensrivierkomme en skets voorsienbare oorgrens-rivieruitdagings vir streekveiligheid, met inagneming die impak van omgewingskaarste. Die keuse van hierdie komme word aangespoor deur hierdie streke wat gekenmerk word deur ernstige omgewingsuitdagings wat nadelig is vir plofbare hidropolitiek oor sulke gedeelde waterbronne. Boonop is hierdie gevalle in drie verskillende streke geleë en is belyn met verskillende reeds funksionele regerings, met protokolle en/of handveste oor gedeelde water. As sodanig maak hulle 'n nuttige vergelykende gevallestudie-analise. Hierdie gevalle bied ideale en fassinerende voorbeelde van die verband tussen klimaatsveranderlikheid en -verandering, waterhulpbronne, menslike veiligheid, konflik, aanpassing en regeringskapasiteit. Die Oranje-Senqu- oorgrensrivierkom, geleë in die Suider-Afrikaanse streek, is, naas die Kongo- en die Zambezi-rivierkomme, die derde grootste rivieropvangsgebied in Afrika. Die kom strek oor vier lande wat die hele Lesotho, 'n groot deel van Suid-Afrika, suidelike Namibië en suidwestelike Botswana insluit. Die OranjeSenqu-kom staar uitdagings van waterskaarste in die gesig as gevolg van gronderosie, vleilandagteruitgang, besoedeling, besproeiing, mynbou, nywerhede, bevolkingsgroei, kragopwekking en huishoudelike verbruik. Die ongelyke verspreiding van varswaterbronne is ook 'n fundamentele faktor wat 'n bedreiging vir die ekonomiese en sosiale ontwikkeling van die Suider-Afrikaanse streek inhou. Die Nylrivierkom (NRK), geleë in die streek van Noordoos-Afrika, is 'n internasionale rivier wat deur elf oewerlande gedeel word. Dit is Burundi, Egipte, Eritrea, Ethiopië, Kenia, Rwanda, Tanzanië, Uganda, die Demokratiese Republiek van die Kongo (DRK), Soedan en Suid-Soedan. Dit maak dit die wêreld se langste rivier op ongeveer 6 700 km of 4 100 myl. Die NRK staar aansienlike uitdagings in die gesig, insluitend vinnige bevolkingsgroei, waterskaarste aangesien die NRK-lande bekend is vir hul droë en semi-droë toestande, armoede, omgewingsagteruitgang en ongelyke verspreiding van die Nylwater. Die NRK word sentraal uitgedaag deur dispute oor die ongelyke gebruik van water tussen stroomop en stroomaf oewerlande. Die Nigerrivier, geleë in Wes-Afrika, is die derde langste rivier in Afrika ná die Nyl en die Kongo, wat oor 4 200 km vloei en tot in 10 lande strek (Guinee, Ivoorkus, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algerië, Benin, Niger, Tsjad, Kameroen en Nigerië). Die Nigerrivierkom staar ook uitdagings van bevolkingsgroei in die gesig (met 'n totale bevolking van ongeveer 100 miljoen en 'n groeikoers van ongeveer 3%), landbou-afloop, olieproduksie (die bron van 'n magdom omgewingskwessies) en klimaatsverandering, onder ander uitdagings. Met betrekking tot die instellings en institusionele kapasiteit wat nodig is om samewerking tussen lidlande te bevorder en die geïntegreerde ontwikkeling van hulpbronne te verseker, fokus die studie op die Oranje-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM), die Nylbekken-inisiatief en die Nigerkom-owerheid. ___________________________________________________________________𝑺𝒆𝑺𝒐𝒕𝒉𝒐 Ka nako e telele ya ngwahaketekgolo e fetileng, dipolotiki tsa metsi tsa meedi ya dinoka tsa naha ya Afrika di ile tsa hlaselwa haholo ke kgaello ya metsi. Tshekatsheko ya dipolotiki tsa metsi e bolelwa mona e le dipolotiki tsa metsi e leng e bontshang dikamano tse tiileng tsa le ditshebeletsano pakeng tsa dinaha tse arolelanang dinoka. Ho ya ka Elhance (2000:202), dipolotiki tseo tsa metsi ke mosebetsi wa dintlha tsena tse pedi: sekgahla sa diphetoho bakeng sa tshebetso ya tsamaiso ya metsi esita le bokgoni ba institjushene ba ho amohela phetoho eo. Dinaha tse Kopaneng (UN) di hlwaile Orange-Senqu, Nile le Noka ya Niger, hammoho le dinoka tse ding hape tse tsheletseng tsa Afrika di na le kgonahalo ya ho tobana le kgohlano ya 424 e bakwang ke metsi, mme di na le kgonahalo ya kotsi ya tsitsipano le/kapa kgohlano. Puisano le thahasello ya diphuputso tsena ho metsi e le seo e ka bang sesosa sa kgohlano di itshetlehile haholoholo ho dinoka tsa Orange-Senqu, Nile le Niger. Diphuputso tsena di tadimana le papiso ya ho tshela ha meedi ya dinoka tsena mme e hlakisa diphephetso tse bonahalang di tla ba teng bakeng sa tshireletso ya mabatowa ka ho tadima sekgahla sa kgaello ya tikoloho. Kgetho ya dinoka tsena e kgothaleditswe ke mabatowa ana a tshwailweng ke diphephetso tsena tse matla tsa tikoloho tse leng kotsi ho dipolotiki tsa metsi mabapi le kgaello ya mehlodi ya metsi eo e kopanelwang. Ho feta mona, dinoka tsena di fumaneha mabatoweng a fapaneng a mararo mme di ikamahanya le mebuso e fapaneng e seng e ntse e le teng, ka melawana ya tatelano le/kapa ditjhate kapa ditaelo tsa mehlodi e kopanelwang ya metsi. Ka tsela e jwalo, di thusa bakeng sa ho etsa tshekatsheko ya diphuputso tse utlwahalang, tse hlakileng. Dipatlisiso tsena di fana ka mehlala e kgahlehang ya dikgokahano pakeng tsa ho fetoha ha tlelaemete le diphetoho, mehlodi ya metsi, tshireletso ya batho, kgohlano, boitlwaetso le bokgoni ba puso. Moedi o tshelang wa noka ya Orange-Senqu, o fumanwang lebatoweng le ka Borwa la Afrika ke la boraro le leholo mona Afrika kamora dinoka tsa Congo le Zambezi. Noka ena e fohla pakeng tsa dinaha tse nne tse kenyeletsang Lesotho lohle, karolo e kgolo ya Afrika Borwa, Borwa ba Namibia Borwa-Bophirimela ba Botswana. Orange-Senqu e tobana le diphephetso tsa kgaello ya metsi ka lebaka la kgoholeho ya mobu, ho fokotseha ha makgulo a mongobo, tshilafatso, nosetso, mebaraka, diindasteri, kgolo ya setjhaba, ho fehlwa ha motlakase le ho sebediswa ka lapeng. Kabo e sa lekanang ya metsi a foreshe le yona ke lebaka la sehlooho le bakang phephetso bakeng sa ntshetsopele ya moruo le ntshetsopele ya setjhaba ya lebatowa le ka Borwa ho Afrika. Nile River Basin (NRB) e fumanwang lebatoweng la North East Africa ke noka ya matjhaba e arolelanwang le dinaha tse mabopong a noka tse leshome le motso o mong. Tsona ke Burundi, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan le South Sudan. Hona ho e etsa ho ba noka e telele ho feta dinoka tsohle lefatsheng ka bolelele bo ka bang dimaele tse 6,700km kapa 4,100. NRB e tobana le diphephetso tse ngata tse kenyeletsang kgolo e potlakileng ya setjhaba, kgaello ya metsi ka hore dinaha tsa NRB di tsejwa ka maemo a tsona a omeletseng le a batlang a omeletse, bofutsana, ho sohlokeha ha tikoloho le ho ajwa ho sa lekanang ha metsi a noka ya Nile. NRB e hlaselwa bohareng ka diphephetso le dingangisano tsa tshebediso e sa lekaneng ya metsi bakeng sa dinaha tse mabopong, tse hodimo le tse tlase 425 Noka ya Niger, e fumanwang mane West Africa, ke noka ya boraro e telele ka ho fetisisa mona Afrika kamora Nile le Congo, mme e phalla bolelele ba 4,200 km mme e kenella ka hara dinaha tse 10 (Guinea, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon le Nigeria). Noka ya Niger le yona e tla ba le diphephetso tsa kgolo le keketseho ya setjhaba (ka paloyohle ya setjhaba eo e ka bang dimiliyone tse 100 le tekanyetso ya sekgahla sa kgolo se ka bang 3%), tsamaiso ya temothuo, tlhahiso ya oli (mohlodi wa ditaba tsa tikoloho) le phetoho ya tlelaemete, hara diphephetso tse ding. Mabapi le diinstitjushene le bokgoni ba institjushene e batlehang bakeng sa ho ntshetsa pele tshebedisano pakeng tsa dinaha le ho etsa bonnete ba ntshetsopele ya mehlodi e kopaneng, diphuputso di tadimana le Orange-Senqu River Commission (ORASECOM), Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), le Niger Basin Authority (NBA). ___________________________________________________________________𝑰𝒔𝒊𝒁𝒖𝒍𝒖 Ingxenye enkulu yekhulu leminyaka elidlule, isimo se-hydropolitical semifula ewela imingcele yase-Afrikha sithintwa ukushoda kwamanzi. Ukuhlaziywa kwe-hydropolitics lapha kubhekiselwa kukho njengepolitiki yamanzi, efanekisela ubudlelwano obuyinkimbinkimbi kakhulu kanye nokusebenzisana phakathi kwezifunda ezihlanganyela imifula. Ngokuka-Elhance (2000: 202), i-hydropolitics enjalo ingumsebenzi wezinto ezimbili eziguquguqukayo: izinga loshintsho ohlelweni lwe-hydrologic kanye namandla esikhungo okumunca lolo shintsho. IZizwe Ezihlangene (i-UN) zihlonze izigodi ze-Orange-Senqu, iNayile kanye noMfula i-Niger, kanye neminye imifula eyisithupha yase-Afrikha esengozini yokungqubuzana okungaba khona okungama-424 okubangelwa amanzi, njengengcupheni yokungezwani noma izingxabano. Inkulumo kanye nentshisekelo yalolu cwaningo emanzini njengomthombo wokungqubuzana okungaba khona kugxile kakhulu e-Orange-Senqu, iNayile kanye nezigodi zomfula i-Niger. Lolu cwaningo luthatha umbono wokuqhathanisa wale mifula enqamula imingcele futhi luveza izinselelo ezibonakala kusengaphambili zemifula ewela emngceleni ngokuvikeleka kwesifunda, kucatshangelwa umthelela wokuntuleka kwemvelo. Ukukhethwa kwalezi zigodi kubangelwa ukuthi lezi zifunda ziphawulwa yizinselelo ezinkulu zemvelo ezilimaza ipolitiki evuthayo phezu kwemithombo yamanzi ehlanganyelwayo. Ngaphezu kwalokho, lezi zimo zitholakala ezifundeni ezintathu ezihlukene futhi ziqondaniswe nemibuso ehlukene esevele iyasebenza, enezimiso okanye ama-charter emseleni wamanzi okwabelwana ngawo. Ngakho-ke, benza ukuhlaziya okuwusizo kokuqhathanisa kwesifundo. Lezi zimo zinikeza izibonelo ezinhle nezithandekayo zezixhumanisi phakathi kokushintshashintsha kwesimo sezulu, imithombo yamanzi, ukuphepha kwabantu, ukungqubuzana, ukuzivumelanisa nezimo kanye namandla ombuso. I-Orange-Senqu River Basin ewela umngcele, etholakala esifundeni esingaseNingizimu ne-Afrikha, ilandela imifula iCongo kanye neZambezi, ibe ngeyesithathu ngobukhulu e-Afrikha. Lesi sigodi sinwebeka emazweni amane ahlanganisa yonke iLesotho, ingxenye enkulu yaseNingizimu Afrikha, eningizimu yeNamibia naseningizimu-ntshonalanga yeBotswana. Umfula i-Orange-Senqu ubhekene nezinselelo zokushoda kwamanzi ngenxa yokuguguleka kwenhlabathi, ukucekelwa phansi kwamaxhaphozi, ukungcoliswa komhlaba, ukuchelela, izimayini, izimboni, ukwanda kwabantu, ukuphehlwa kukagesi nokusetshenziswa ezindlini. Ukusatshalaliswa ngokungalingani kwemithombo yamanzi ahlanzekile nakho kuyisici esibalulekile esibeka engcupheni intuthuko yezomnotho nenhlalakahle yesifunda sase-Afrikha eseNingizimu I-Nile River Basin (NRB), etholakala esifundeni saseNyakatho-mpumalanga ye-Afrikha ingumfula wamazwe omhlaba ohlanganyelwa amazwe ayishumi nanye aseduze komfula. Lawa yiBurundi, iGibhithe, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Sudan kanye neSouth Sudan. Lokhu kuwenza ube umfula omude kunayo yonke emhlabeni cishe ngo-6,700km noma amamayela angu-4,100. I-NRB ibhekene nezinselelo ezinkulu ezihlanganisa ukukhula ngokushesha kwesibalo sabantu, ukusweleka kwamanzi njengoba amazwe e-NRB aziwa ngezimo zawo ezomile nezisagwadule, ubumpofu, ukucekelwa phansi kwemvelo kanye nokusatshalaliswa okungalingani kwamanzi eNayile. I-NRB ibhekene nenselelo emaphakathi ngenxa yezingxabano mayelana nokusetshenziswa kokungalingani kwamanzi phakathi kwamazwe akhuphuka nomfula. Umfula iNiger, oseNtshonalanga Afrikha, ungumfula wesithathu omude kakhulu e-Afrikha ngemva kweNayile neCongo, ogeleza amakhilomitha angu-4,200 futhi udlulela amazweni ayishumi (Guinea, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Algeria, Benin, Niger, Chad, Cameroon kanye neNigeria). I-Niger River Basin iphinde ibhekane nezinselelo zokukhula kwesibalo sabantu (enenani labantu elilinganiselwa ezigidini eziyi-100 kanye nezinga lokukhula elilinganiselwa ku-3%), ukugeleza kwezolimo, ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela (umthombo wezinkinga zemvelo) kanye nokushintsha kwesimo sezulu, phakathi kwezinye izinselele. Mayelana nezikhungo namandla esikhungo adingekayo ukuze kuthuthukiswe ukubambisana phakathi kwamazwe angamalungu kanye nokuqinisekisa ukuthuthukiswa okudidiyelwe kwezinsiza, ucwaningo lugxile kwiKhomishana yoMfula i-Orange-Senqu (i-ORASECOM), i-Nile Basin Initiative (NBI), kanye ne-Niger Basin Authority (NBA). ___________________________________________________________________enAfricaEnvironmental conflictEnvironmental scarcityRegime capacityTransboundary river basinsOrange-Senqu river basinHomer-dixon’s environmental scarcity theoryRegime theoryNile River BasinNiger River BasinOrange-Senqu River BasinWatershedsThesisUniversity of the Free State