Van Niekerk, H. N.De Waal, H. O.Strydom, D.Jordaan, H.Badenhorst, Coenraad Geldenhuys2018-02-162018-02-162014-07http://hdl.handle.net/11660/7821English: Predation is a problem for livestock farmers in many parts of the world and increasing losses are ascribed to predation. The black-backed jackal (Canis mesomelas) and caracal (Caracal caracal) are two important medium size predator species among South African wildlife, but they have a negative impact on the livestock industry in South Africa, especially on small livestock such as sheep and goats. These two predators and also brown hyaena (Parahyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus), dogs (Canis familiarise) and leopard (Panthera pardus) are responsible for losses of small and large livestock in several provinces. A number of studies have focused on the cost of predation on small livestock, specifically the direct cost of predation, and only a few studies have looked at the different methods to help farmers to minimize or eliminate losses due to predation. However, no study has quantified the direct as well as the indirect cost of predation on cattle in South Africa. The study focused on predation losses of cattle in South Africa. A sample of 1 500 cattle farmers was divided between provinces in relation to the number of cattle in provinces as percentage of the national cattle herd. The Western Cape and Gauteng did not want to participate in the study; the structured questionnaire was used to conduct a survey by telephone with the remaining sample size of 1 344 cattle farmers in seven (7) provinces. For the purpose of this report (dissertation) only the North West province was explored in detail and the primary information for the six other provinces are included as appendices. Three main objectives were pursued, namely: to quantify the direct and indirect losses ascribed to predation; to determine the impact of predation on the large livestock industry in the North West province; to investigate the underlying structures in the predation prevention practices used by farmers in the North West province; to improve the understanding of the current behaviour of the farmers in preventing predation, and to investigate the factors that influence predation in the North West province, in order to identify prevention approaches that are associated with reduced predation. Such information may contribute to the identification of possible best management practices for predation prevention. The study (reported in the dissertation) was conducted in the four magisterial districts of the North West province namely: Bojanala Platinum District, Bophirima District, Ngaka Modiri Molema District and Southern District. The sample size of this study was 238 respondents who farmed commercially with a total of 122 780 head of cattle or 16% of the total number of cattle in the North West province. Telephonic interviews were used to collect data from the farmers. The structured questionnaire included questions on topics such socio-economic factors, managerial factors and the methods used to protect the livestock. The majority of the losses in the four magisterial districts of the North West province were caused by the black-backed jackal followed by the caracal. The percentage of losses due to the caracal is markedly lower than those caused by the black-backed jackal. The reason for the lower predation is not clear, but it is speculated that it may be a result of the smaller population of the caracal and the fact that caracal are solitary predators and do not hunt in groups. The direct cost of predation losses (cattle) in the North West province was estimated at ZAR67 776 800, when extrapolating predation losses on a provincial basis. The indirect cost of predation in the North West province was divided into a lethal cost of predation (ZAR7 455 333) and the non-lethal cost (ZAR9 087 653). Therefore, the total cost of predation in the North West province was estimated at ZAR84 319 786. This study showed that 37% of farmers in the North West province use lethal control methods and only 14% use non-lethal methods of control. The lethal preventing methods are divided into six types of methods that include: shooting predators at night with spotlights (15%), using specialist hunters (6%), foothold traps (1%), cage traps (8%), hunting with dogs (2%) and poison (5%). The non-lethal methods are: herdsmen (8%), electric fences (1%), jackal proof fences (<1%), kraaling (4%) and guarding dogs (1%). The list of methods available in the toolkit for farmers to manage predation on cattle is shorter than for sheep and goat farmers. Most appropriate methods available to farmers to control predation or mitigate the impact of predation (non-lethal and lethal) on cattle were used by respondents. However, none of these methods when used individually or when a few were used in combination, proved to be a one-for-all solution at the provincial level. At the district level there were indications that some methods were more effective in reducing the impact of predation. The information suggests that all the appropriate methods and equipment available must be incorporated in the local predation management approach and strategy. The data were used to investigate the underlying structures and also to identify the best management practices. The principal component regression (PCR) tools were used to analyse the data and deal with the problem of multi co-linearity. The Pairwise Granger Causality test was used to analyse the direction of causality. The study included 42 different explanatory variables that were divided into four groups namely: socio-economic factors, managerial factors, lethal control methods and non-lethal control methods. There were 11 significant variables in the PCR (Logit) and 22 significant variables in the PCR (Truncated). The causality tests showed that none of the Logit variables had a Granger cause, but there were two Tobit variables that had a Granger cause. These two lethal methods had a negative effect on the level of predation. These results were unexpected, but this effect may be because of inexperienced farmers who kill predators that do not cause problems thereby causing a “vacuum” effect of new predators moving in. The conclusions of Van Niekerk (2010) were confirmed, namely the factors that affect the occurrence of predation and those factors that affect the level of predation are not the same. This study does not provide definitive answers to predation, but it helps to understand predation better with a view to develop appropriate management solutions. The total direct and indirect cost of predation on cattle in the different provinces and South Africa was: Western Cape - NA; Northern Cape - ZAR19 943 079; Free State - ZAR117 600 433; Eastern Cape - ZAR4 827 237; KwaZulu-Natal - ZAR66 027 879; Mpumalanga - ZAR43 938 376; Limpopo - ZAR46 486 017; Gauteng - NA; North West - ZAR84 319 786; South Africa - ZAR383 142 807. In summary, the respondents in six (6) of the seven (7) provinces ascribed the majority of the predation losses on cattle to the black-backed jackal. The exception was the Limpopo province where the leopard was implicated to account for most of the predation losses on cattle. In some provinces the second most predation losses were ascribed either to the caracal, brown hyaena, leopard, dogs or cheetah. It should be noted that some uncertainty may exist in the ability of farmers to identify positively the specific predator responsible for the losses. In some cases secondary scavenging on cattle may also have been mistaken for predation. It clearly calls for increased efforts to increase the skills of farmers to identify the specific methods used by predators to catch and eat their prey. The widespread negative impact of predation losses to sheep, goats and cattle can hardly be ignored any longer. A third study by the UFS will soon commence to estimate the impact of predation on the wildlife ranching sector. Currently the approach to manage predation is fragmented and uncoordinated. The scale and impact of predation in South Africa calls for a focused and coordinated predation management and research programme to reduce (mitigate) the negative impact of predation.Afrikaans: Predasie is „n probleem vir veeboere in baie dele van die wêreld en veeverliese word toenemende aan predasie toegedig. Die rooijakkals (Canis mesomelas) en rooikat (Caracal caracal) is belangrike middelslag roofdierspesies wat deel vorm van die Suid-Afrikaanse wildlewe, maar hulle het „n negatiewe impak het op die veebedryf in Suid-Afrika, veral op kleinvee soos skape en bokke. Die twee roofdiere sowel as bruin hiëna (Parahyaena brunnea), jagluiperd (Acinonyx jubatus), honde (Canis familiaris) en luiperd (Panthera pardus) is verantwoordelik vir verliese van klein- en grootvee in verskeie provinsies. Vele studies het op die koste van predasie op kleinvee, spesifiek die direkte koste van predasie gefokus en slegs „n paar studies het ondersoek ingestel na die verskillende metodes om boere te help om die kostes van predasieverliese te verminder of elimineer. Daar was egter nog nie „n studie wat die direkte koste sowel as die indirekte koste van predasie op grootvee in Suid-Afrika gekwantifiseer het nie. Die studie het op predasieverliese van beeste in Suid-Afrika gefokus. ʼn Monter van 1 500 beesboere is tussen provinsies verdeel in verhouding tot die provinsiale beesgetalle as persentasie van die nasionale beeskudde. Die Weskaap en Gauteng wou nie aan die studie deelneem nie; ʼn gestruktureerde vraelys is gebruik om ʼn telefoniese opname by die oorblywende monter van 1 344 beesboere in sewe (7) provinsies uit te voer. Vir die doel van die verslag (verhandeling) is slegs die Noordwes provinsie in detail ontleed en die primêre inligting vir die ander ses provinsies word as aanhangsels aangebied. Drie hoof doelwitte is nagestreef, naamlik: om die direkte en indirekte kostes wat aan predasie toegeskryf word te kwantifiseer; om die impak van predasie op die grootvee bedryf in die Noordwes provisie te bepaal; om die onderliggende strukture van die voorkomingspraktyke wat boere in die Noordwes provinsie gebruik te ondersoek; om die bestaande optredes van die boere om predasie te voorkom te verbeter en om die faktore wat predasie in die Noordwes provinsie beïnvloed te ondersoek, om voorkomingspraktyke te identifiseer wat verlaagde predasie tot gevolg gaan hê. Hierdie inligting kan bydra tot die identifisering van moontlike bestuurspraktyke vir predasie voorkoming. Die studie (in die verhandeling bespreek) is in die vier landdrosdistrikte van die Noordwes provinsie uitgevoer, naamlik: Bojanala Platinum distrik, Bophirima Distrik, Ngaka Modiri Molema Distrik en Suidelike Distrik. Die steekproef grootte was 238 respondente wat kommersieel met 122 780 beeste boer of 10% van die totale aantal beeste in die Noordwes provinsie. Telefoniese onderhoude is gebruik om die data by die boere in te samel. Die vraelys het vrae oor sosio-ekonomiese faktore, bestuursfaktore en die metodes wat gebruik word om hulle vee te beskerm ingesluit. Die meerderheid van die verliese in die vier landdrosdistrikte van die Noordwes provinsie is veroorsaak deur die rooijakkals gevolg deur die rooikat. Die persentasie verliese veroorsaak deur die rooikat is aansienlik minder as die deur rooijakkalse. Die rede vir die laer predasie is nie duidelik nie, maar daar is gespekuleer dat dit aan ʼn kleiner populasie van rooikatte toegeskryf kan word en ook die feit dat rooikatte alleenlopende roofdiere is en nie in groepe jag nie. Die direkte koste van predasieverliese (beeste) in die Noordwes provinsie is geraam op ZAR67 776 800, wanneer verliese op provinsiale basisse geëkstrapoleer word. Die indirekte koste van predasie in die Noordwes provinsie is verdeel in dodelik kostes (ZAR7 455 333) en die nie-dodelike kostes (ZAR9 087 653). Dus was die totale koste van predasie in die Noord Wes provinsie geraam op ZAR84 319 786. Hierdie studie het getoon dat 37% van die boere in die Noordwes provinsie dodelike beheermetodes en slegs 14% nie-dodelike metodes gebruik. Die boere in die Noordwes provinsie gebruik tans ses tipes dodelike voorkomings metodes wat insluit: skiet van roofdiere in die nag met kolligte (15%), gebruik van spesialis jagters (6%), vangysters (1%), vanghokke (8%), jage met honde (2%) en gif (5%). Die nie-dodelike metodes is: veewagters (8%), geëlektrifiseerde heinings (1%), jakkalswerende heinings (<1%), krale (4%) en waghonde (1%). Die lys beskikbare metodes vir boere in die gereedskapkis om predasie op beeste te bestuur is minder as vir skaap- en bokboere. Meeste toepaslike metodes wat beskikbaar is om predasie op beeste te beheer of die impak te verminder (nie-dodelik en dodelik) word deur respondente gebruik. Nietemin is geen van die metodes wat indiwidueel of gesamentlik gebruik word, ʼn magiese oplossing vir predasie op die provinsiale vlak nie. Op die distriksvlak was wel aanduidings dat sommige metodes meer effektief was om die impak van predasie te verminder. Die inligting suggereer dat al die toepaslike metodes en toerusting beskikbaar moet wees om predasie op die plaaslike vlak vir predasiebestuur en -strategie aan te wend. Die data is gebruik om die onderliggende strukture te ondersoek en om die beste bestuurspraktyke te identifiseer. Die hoofkomponenteregressie (PCR) is gebruik om die data te analiseer en om die probleem van multikolineariteit op te los. Die Pairwise Granger Causality toets is gebruik om die rigting van kousaliteit te analiseer. Die studie het 42 verskillende verduidelikende veranderlikes bevat wat in vier groepe verdeel is naamlik: sosio-ekonomiese faktore, bestuursfaktore, dodelike beheermetodes en nie-dodelike beheermetodes. Daar was 11 beduidende veranderlikes in die PCR (Logit) en 22 beduidende veranderlikes in die PCR (Truncated). Die kousaliteit toets het gewys dat geen van die Logit veranderlikes „n Granger oorsaak het nie, maar daar was twee Tobit veranderlikes wat „n Granger veroorsaak het. Hierdie twee dodelike metodes het „n negatiewe effek op die vlak van predasie. Hierdie uitslae was onverwags, maar die effek kon veroorsaak word deur onervare boere wat roofdiere doodmaak wat nie probleme veroorsaak nie en sodoende „n “vakuum” effek veroorsaak en nuwe roofdiere inbeweeg. Die gevolgtrekking deur Van Niekerk (2010) is bevestig, naamlik die faktore wat die voorkoms van predasie beïnvloed verskil van die faktore wat die vlak van predasie beïnvloed. Die studie bied nie ʼn finale antwoord nie maar help om predasie beter te verstaan met die oog daarop om toepaslike bestuursoplossings te ontwikkel. Die totale direkte en indirekte koste van predasie op beeste in verskillende provinsies en Suid-Afrika was: Weskaap - NB; Noordkaap - ZAR19 943 079; Vrystaat - ZAR117 600 433; Ooskaap - ZAR4 827 237; KwaZulu-Natal - ZAR66 027 879; Mpumalanga - ZAR43 938 376; Limpopo - ZAR46 486 017; Gauteng - NB; Noordwes - ZAR84 319 786; Suid-Afrika - ZAR383 142 807. Die respondente in ses (6) van die sewe (7) provinsies het meeste van die predasieverliese op beeste aan rooijakkalse toegeskryf. Die uitsondering was die Limpopo provinsie waar die luiperd verantwoordelik gehou is vir meeste verliese onder beeste. In party provinsies was die tweede meeste verliese aan rooikatte, bruin hiëna, luiperd, honde of jagluiperd toegeskryf. Daar mag ʼn mate van onduidelikheid wees in die vermoë van boere om die spesifieke roofdier wat skade aanrig positief te identifiseer. Soms mag sekondêre aas op karkasse met predasie verwar word. Duidelik moet pogings aangewend word om die vermoë van boere om spesifieke metodes van roofdiere om prooi te vang en vreet, te verbeter. Die wydverspreide negatiewe impak van predasieverliese op skape, bokke en beeste kan nie langer geïgnoreer word nie. ʼn Derde studie deur die UV begin eersdaags om die impak van predasie op die wildbedryf te bepaal. Die huidige benadering tot predasiebestuur is gefragmenteerd en ongekoördineerd. Die omvang en impak van predasie in Suid-Afrika vereis duidelik ʼn doelgerigte en gekoördineerde predasiebestuurs- en navorsingsprogram om die omvang en negatiewe impak van predasie te verminder.enPredatory animals -- South Africa -- North WestCarnivora -- South Africa -- North WestLivestock -- Predators of -- South Africa -- North WestLivestock losses -- South Africa -- North WestDissertation (M.Sc.Agric. (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2014DissertationUniversity of the Free State