Die invloed van klimaatverandering op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad en voorgestelde aanpassings - Conradie, Dirk (Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of the Free State, 2016)
The purpose of this article is to research the effect of climate change on the South African city and to recommend appropriate measures, based on the specific climatic zone. With increased climate change, it is getting increasingly important that the South African city should be resilient. Recently, the CSIR produced new climate and energy maps to replace the SANS 204 (2011) South African National Building Standards six zone climatic region map. To ensure the long-term applicability of the new climate map, it was decided that, over and above the use of historic climatic data, climate change should also be considered. An A2 climate change scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht et al., 2011: 649) was used. An A2 scenario can be described as business as usual. Recent research predicts that southern Africa can expect a temperature increase of between 4°C to 6°C in hot western dessert areas (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Simultaneously, the amount of energy in the atmosphere increases, causing higher intensity storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). The significant warming will have a severe impact on cities where the so-called Urban Heat Island (UHI) causes cities to be significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas. These factors indicate that climate change will have a significant impact on the southern African city.

Die doel van hierdie artikel is om die effek van klimaatverandering op die Suid- Afrikaanse stad te ondersoek en toepaslike maatreëls aan die hand te doen, gebaseer op die spesifieke klimaatstreek. Met toenemende klimaatverandering word dit al hoe belangriker dat Suid-Afrikaanse stede veerkragtig (resilient) moet wees. Onlangs is nuwe klimaat- en energiekaarte by die WNNR geproduseer om die huidige SANS 204 (2011) Suid-Afrikaanse Nasionale Boustandaard ses sonekaart te vervang. Ten einde die langtermyn toepaslikheid van die kaart te verseker, is daar bo en behalwe die gebruik van historiese klimaatdata ook data oor klimaatverandering in berekening gebring om die kaart te skep. ʼn A2 klimaatverandering van die Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) vir die periode 1961-2100 (Engelbrecht, Landman, Engelbrecht, Landman, Bopape, Roux, McGregor & Thatcher, 2011: 649) is gebruik. ʼn A2 scenario kan beskryf word as besigheid soos gewoon. Volgens onlangse navorsing kan suidelike Afrika ʼn temperatuurstyging van tussen 4°C tot 6°C verwag in die westelike warm woestyngebiede van suidelike Afrika (Engelbrecht & Engelbrecht, 2016: 247-261). Terselfdertyd verhoog die hoeveelheid energie in die atmosfeer wat lei tot ʼn verhoogde intensiteit van storms (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). Die toenemende verwarming sal ʼn groot impak op stede hê waar die sogenaamde Stedelike Hitte Eiland (SHE)-effek veroorsaak dat die stede heelwat warmer word as die omliggende landelike gebiede. Al bogenoemde faktore toon aan dat klimaatverandering ʼn aansienlike impak op die Suid-Afrikaanse stad sal hê.

Sepheo sa atikele ena ke ho batlisisa dikgahlamelo tsa phetoho ya maemo a lehodimo motsetoropong wa Afrika Borwa le ho kgothalletsa mekgwa e tshwanelehileng ho ya ka maemo a kgethehileng a lehodimo. Ka baka la ho eketseha ha phetoho ya boemo ba lehodimo, ho ntse ho eba bohlokwa le ho feta hore motsetoropo wa Afrika Borwa o elwe hloko. Haufinyana, CSIR e entse di mmepe tse ntjha tsa maemo a lehodimo le tsa matla a motlakase ho tlosa mmapa wa SANS 202 (2011) South African National Building Standards six zone climate region. Ho etsa bonnete ba hore ho na le mmapa o motjha wa maemo a lehodimo o tshwanelehileng bakeng sa nako e telele, ho entswe qeto ya hore ka hodima tshebetso ya pokello ya dintlha tsa nalane; phetoho maemong a lehodimo le yona e tlameha ho elwa hloko. Ho sebedisitswe A2 ya tlhaloso ya diketsahalo tse tla etsahala tsa nako e tlang mabapi le phetoho ya maemo a lehodimo ya Special Report on Emission Senarios (SRES) nakong ya 1961 ho fihlela 2100 (Engelbrecht et al., 2011: 649). Tlhaloso ya A2 ya diketsahalo tse tla etsahala nakong e tlang e ka hlaloswa e le mosebetsi wa tlwaelo. Dipatlisiso tsa nakwana e fetileng di lepa hore Afrika e ka Borwa e ka lebella nyoloho ya themphereitjha pakeng tsa 4 ho ya ho 6 °C dibakeng tse chesang tsa lehwatata le ka Bophirima (Engelbrecht et al., 2016: 247-261). Nakong yona eo, palo ya matla sepakapakeng/sebakeng e a nyoloha, hona ho etsa hore hobe le difefo tse matla (Emanuel, 2005: 686-688). Mofuthu o matla o tla ba le kgahlamelo e mpe haholo bakeng sa metsetoropo moo Urban Heat Island (UHI) e etsang hore e be mofuthu haholo, ho feta dibaka tsa mapolasi tse e potapotileng. Dintlha tse boletsweng ka hodimo di bontsha hore ho tla ba le kgahlamelo e kgolo bakeng sa metsetoropo e Borwa ba Afrika ka baka la phetoho ya maemo a lehodimo.
Keywords: Climate change; Cities; South Africa