Jooste, A.Van Schalkwyk, H. D.Oyewumi, Olubukola Ayodeji2015-10-272015-10-272005-11http://hdl.handle.net/11660/1437English: The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations resulted in three main areas of trade liberalization in agriculture, namely market access, domestic support, and export subsidies. In terms of market access, the introduction of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) was one of the main tools to facilitate greater market access. After the liberalization of the agricultural sector and phasing out of past protection mechanisms South Africa introduced a process of tariff reform in compliance with WTO regulations. Furthermore, a system of TRQs was introduced in compliance with WTO regulations. Literature on South African agricultural trade shows that very little research has been conducted on the impacts of TRQs. In this study the impacts of further TRQ liberalization on the South African livestock industry were investigated using four TRQ liberalization scenarios, namely: 33 per cent expansion of import quotas, 33 per cent reduction in ad valorem MFN tariffs, a combination of the first two scenarios and a complete removal of tariffs. The approach followed in this study is spatial partial equilibrium in nature and consists of the primary (beef cattle, broilers, pigs, and sheep) and secondary (beef, poultry, pork and sheep meat) sub-sectors. The model delineates South Africa into its nine provinces, as well as neighbouring important meat producers – Namibia and Botswana. For the four secondary products (beef, poultry, pork and sheep meat) the border prices declined by between 0.89 and 2.39 per cent for scenario one, 2.35 and 7.96 per cent for scenario two, 2.96 and 9.97 per cent for scenario three and 8.25 and 25.19 per cent for scenario four. The largest decline in beef and sheep meat prices due to liberalization was recorded in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal Provinces. Cattle and sheep numbers owned by emerging producers are more than those of the established commercial farmers in these two provinces. The implication is that the development efforts by government aimed at commercializing emerging commercial stock farming in order to address equity and poverty may be slowed down considerably with further trade liberalization. The study used the consumer and producers surplus concepts, as well as the equivalent variation concept to measure the impact on welfare of potential trade policy changes mentioned. Welfare as measured by consumer surplus increases by R230.8 million in scenario 1 to R1 880.8 million in scenario 4. Producer surplus decreases by R77.6 million in scenario 1 to R656.89 million in scenario 4. Welfare as measured by equivalent variation increased by R60.6 million in scenario 1 to R468.2 million in scenario 4. The equivalent variation concept revealed much more moderate changes to consumer well being. The reason for this is that consumer and producer surplus estimations assume linearity of the demand and supply curves, whereas the model used in this study accounts for the non-linearity of demand and supply curves. Consumer and producers surplus estimates nevertheless provide useful insight into the relative impact of trade policy changes. Should further TRQ liberalization be considered in the South African livestock industry, consideration should first be given to expanding the existing quota rather than reducing tariffs. Further research on the following aspects is recommended, (i) products differentiated by place of origin based on the Armington assumption, (ii) expansion of current modelling framework to include additional products and (iii) explicit modelling of TRQs such as the creation of rents and its distribution.Afrikaans: Afrikaans: Die Uruguay-rondte handelsonderhandelinge het gelei tot handelsvryheid op drie belangrike landbougebiede, naamlik marktoegang, die ondersteuning van plaaslike produkte en uitvoersubsidies. Wat marktoegang betref, het die instelling van tariefkoers kwotas (TKK’s) onder meer die toon aangegee om groter marktoegang in die hand te werk. Na die liberalisering van die landbousektor en die uitfasering van voormalige beskermingsmeganismes, het Suid-Afrika in ooreenstemming met WHO-regulasies, ‘n proses van tariefhervorming ingestel. Voorts is ‘n stelsel van TKK’s ingestel in ooreenstemming met WHO-regulasies. Literatuur oor die Suid-Afrikaanse landbousektor dui daarop dat baie min navorsing oor die uitwerking van TKK’s gedoen is. In hierdie studie is die uitwerking van verdere TKK-liberalisering op die Suid-Afrikaanse lewendehawe sektor ondersoek deur gebruik te maak van vier TKK-liberalisering scenario’s, naamlik: 33 persent uitbreiding van invoerkwotas, 33 persent vermindering in MFN-tariewe volgens waarde, ‘n kombinasie van die eerste twee scenario’s en ‘n algehele wegdoen met tariewe. Die benadering wat in hierdie studie gevolg is, is ruimtelik gedeeltelike ewewig van aard en is saamgestel uit die primêre (vleisbeeste, braaikuikens, varke en skape) en sekondêre (bees-, hoender-, vark- en skaapvleis) sub-sektore. Die model verteenwoordig Suid-Afrika se nege provinsies, asook belangrike vleisproduserende buurlande – Namibië en Botswana. Sover dit die vier sekondêre produkte (bees-, hoender-, vark- en skaapvleis) aangaan, het die marginale pryse met tussen 0.89 en 2.39 persent afgeneem vir scenario een, tussen 2.35 en 7.96 persent vir scenario twee, tussen 2.96 en 9.97 persent vir scenario drie en tussen 8.25 en 25.19 persent vir scenario vier. Die grootste afname in bees- en skaapvleispryse as gevolg van liberalisering is in die provinsies van die Oos-Kaap en KwaZulu-Natal aangeteken. Bees- en skaapgetalle in besit van opkomende produsente oorskry dié van gevestigde kommersiële boere in dié twee provinsies. Die aanduiding is dat die ontwikkelingspogings deur die regering wat daarop gemik is om opkomende kommersiële veeboerdery te kommersialiseer om sodoende gelykheid te weeg te bring en armoede hok te slaan aanmerklik vertraag kan word deur verdere handelsliberalisering. Die studie het gebruik gemaak van die verbruikers- en produsentesurplus konsepte, sowel as die ekwivalent variasie konsep om vas te stel wat die uitwerking van genoemde potensiële handelsbeleidsveranderings op welvaart sal wees. Welvaart soos gemeet deur verbruikersurplus neem met R230.8 miljoen toe in scenario 1 tot R1 880.8 miljoen in scenario 4. Produsentesurplus neem met R77.6 miljoen af in scenario 1 tot R656.89 miljoen in scenario 4. Welvaart soos gemeet deur ekwivalent variasie het in scenario 1 met R60.6 miljoen toegeneem tot R468.2 miljoen in scenario 4. Die ekwivalent variasie konsep het heelwat meer gematigde veranderinge aan verbruikersbelange aan die lig gebring. Die rede hiervoor is dat verbruikers- en produsentesurplus beramings aanneem dat daar lineariteit in die vraag- en aanbod-kurwes is, terwyl die model wat in hierdie studie gebruik is, voorsiening maak vir die nie-lineariteit van vraag- en aanbodkurwes. Desnieteenstaande verskaf verbruikers- en produsente surplus beramings dienlike insig in die relatiewe uitwerking van handelsbeleidsveranderings. Indien verdere TKK-liberalisering in die Suid-Afrikaanse lewendehawe bedryf oorweeg sou word, moet daar eers aandag geskenk word aan die vergroting van die bestaande kwota, eerder as om die tariewe te verlaag. Verdere navorsing oor die volgende aspekte word aanbeveel, (i) onderskeid tussen produkte op grond van die plek van oorsprong soos gegrond op die Armington-aanname, (ii) uitbreiding van die huidige model raamwerk om bykomende produkte in te sluit en (iii) eksplisiete modellering van TKK’s, soos die daarstelling van hure en die verspreiding daarvan.enTrade liberalizationLivestock and meat tradePartial equilibrium modelApplied welfare economicsTariff rate quotas (trq)Tariff on farm produceProduce trade -- Government policy -- South AfricaForeign trade regulation -- South AfricaAnimal industry -- South AfricaDissertation (M.Sc.Agric (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2005DissertationUniversity of the Free State