Agricultural supply response in Ethiopia
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Date
2003-05
Authors
Alemu, Zerihun Gudeta
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
University of the Free State
Abstract
This study had one major goal of measuring the responsiveness of agriculture to
policy and non-policy related events. This was divided into three major objectives,
namely, the contribution of agriculture to overall GDP growth, the responsiveness
of aggregate agriculture to policy and non-policy related events, and the
responsiveness of cereal producers to incentive changes.
A number of econometrics procedures were employed to achieve the objectives of
this study which ranged from simple descriptive statistic techniques to advanced
time series econometrics. One of these methods introduced an improvement to the
conventional method of tests on the data generating process when a series is
characterized by a break. In addition, due to lack of available econometrics or
statistical packages tailored to achieving specific needs of this study, two computer
programs were developed. The first program was used to decompose changes in
the mean and variance of cereal production into four and ten component parts
respectively. The second program was used to extract cycles from agricultural
GDP and to determine periods of cyclical fluctuations.
The following were major findings of this study with regards to the first major
objective: much of the growth in overall GDP has been the result of growth in the
manufacturing and the services sectors; structural transformation has not yet been
attained; and the contribution of agriculture in stimulating growth in other sectors of
the economy has been positive in economic systems and policy environments
where agriculture has been allowed to operate freely.
The following were the major findings of the study with regards to the second
objective. The responsiveness of aggregate agriculture has so far been affected
more by natural factors such as drought and fluctuations in aggregate agriculture
are cyclical. The latter was attributed to weather variability. With regards to the
third objective, the following were found: the crop sub-sector is responsive, the
country is increasingly becoming food insecure as a result of the susceptibility 0:.
the crop sub-sector to changes in weather patterns.
The following are the recommendations of this study. Agricultural Development Led
Industrialization strategy (ADLI) is the current development strategy of the country.
For this strategy to achieve its short-and long-term objectives, the following
measures are recommended. First, problems associated with state ownership of
land should be harnessed. Second, market improvement and infrastructural
development must be integral parts of the development planning process. Third,
agriculture should be freed from policy constraints. Fourth, macro-policy reforms
and efforts that enhance the responsiveness of agriculture at various stages should
be encouraged. Fifth, agricultural research and agricultural extension capacity of
the country must be encouraged to increase the supply of new drought varieties to
mitigate the effect of drought on the instability of crop production.
Description
Keywords
Agriculture and state -- Ethiopia, Agriculture -- Ethiopia -- Mathematical models, Agricultural productivity -- Ethiopia, Thesis (Ph.D. (Agricultural Economics))--University of the Free State, 2003